Gold just jumped to a record high. Here's why

Gold hit a record high this week as investors continue to bet the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the back half of the year. (Sven Hoppe / dpa / picture alliance / Getty Images via CNN Newsource)

New York — Gold rose Tuesday after notching a record high the prior day, as investors continue to bet the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates in the back half of the year.

The yellow metal was up about 0.4 per cent on Tuesday morning, stabilizing somewhat after settling at an all-time high of US$2,126.30 a troy ounce on Monday.

Gold is considered to be one of the most resilient investments. When interest rates fall, holding income-paying assets (like bonds) becomes less appealing than owning the precious metal. However, some investors also believe gold to be a hedge against inflation, wagering that it will hold its value even if it begins to surge.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.4 per cent for the 12 months ended in January. That’s a cooldown from December’s 2.6 per cent increase and in line with economists’ expectations, according to Commerce Department data released last week.

On a monthly basis, the core PCE price index that strips out the more volatile food and energy categories rose 0.4 per cent. And while the rise was in line with projections, the index, which Fed officials view as a crucial gauge of underlying inflation, rose at the fastest monthly pace since February 2023.

Currently, traders see a roughly 69 per cent chance that the Fed will cut rates at its June policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That’s a lower chance than at the beginning of the year, when investors seemed convinced that rate cuts were imminent.

Investors are looking to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony slated for Wednesday, hoping to get a clearer idea of what to expect from the Fed in the months ahead.

Bitcoin, dubbed by its staunch supporters as digital gold, has also surged in recent weeks. The cryptocurrency on Monday topped its previous record of US$68,789 reached on November 10, 2021, snapping a two-year rut as the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs helped turbocharge a rally.

The milestones for both bitcoin and gold come as stocks continue to rally powerfully. The S&P 500 index has set repeated record highs this year, and the Nasdaq Composite index reached an all-time high for the first time since 2021 last week as the artificial intelligence boom continues to sweep Wall Street.