Chevron forecasts up to US$2.2 billion rise in upstream earnings from higher first-quarter prices

Prices are displayed on a Chevron gas station sign in Houston, Tuesday, March 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)

Chevron said on Thursday it expected a US$1.6 billion boost to $2.2 billion to its first-quarter upstream earnings versus the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by surging oil and gas prices from volatility linked to the Iran war.

The conflict, which began on February 28, sent oil prices skyrocketing as much as 65 per cent, with some oil and gas fields in the Middle East shutting production after the Strait of Hormuz - a conduit for a fifth of global energy flows - was effectively closed.

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Benchmark Brent crude prices averaged $78.38 per barrel during the first quarter, up 24% from the previous three months, according to LSEG data.

Chevron’s net oil-equivalent production is expected to average 3.8 million to 3.9 million barrels per day, with volumes affected by downtime at Kazakhstan’s Tengizchevroil project and reduced output in parts of the Middle East.

Rival Exxon Mobil on Wednesday earnings in its upstream business could get a lift of about $1.4 billion compared with the fourth quarter, driven by higher oil prices.

Exxon, however, signaled overall earnings could decline from the previous quarter as a multi‑billion‑dollar hit related to financial hedging was expected to outweigh gains from higher oil and gas prices triggered by the Middle East conflict.

Chevron, likewise, said timing effects tied to hedging and accounting would weigh on first‑quarter results, cutting earnings and operating cash flow excluding working capital by $2.7 billion to $3.7 billion after tax, mainly downstream, though the impact is expected to reverse over time.

Chevron’s upstream fourth-quarter earnings were $3.04 billion.

(Reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore and Pooja Desai)