Nova Scotia Tories maintain strong lead among decided voters: poll

A composite image made from three photos show Nova Scotia Liberal Leader Iain Rankin, from left to right, in Halifax, Tuesday, Aug. 17, 2021, NDP Leader Claudia Chender and Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Houston in Halifax on Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Kelly Clark, Darren Calabrese

HALIFAX — A new poll suggests Nova Scotia’s governing Progressive Conservatives were holding a steady lead over their opposition rivals more than a year after the party won an overwhelming election victory.

Toronto-based Liaison Strategies says a recent survey of 800 Nova Scotia voters found the Tories held a 19-point lead over the Opposition New Democrats, led by Claudia Chender.

Among decided and leaning voters, Premier Tim Houston’s Progressive Conservatives attracted 50 per cent support, followed by the NDP with 31 per cent and the Liberals under interim leader Iain Rankin at 18 per cent. Two per cent of respondents selected other parties.

When compared with the election results in November 2024, both the Tories and the Liberals have lost some ground to the NDP, but not much. Once the ballots had been counted last fall, the Tories had won 53 per cent of the popular vote, the Liberals won 23 per cent and the NDP won 22 per cent.

The survey results also suggest the New Democrats maintained a strong lead in the Halifax area, where the party won eight of its nine seats.

David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, issued a statement saying Houston’s Conservatives should take a closer look at the numbers.

“If you are the governing party, leading with 65 per cent outside Halifax is an asset, but trailing in Halifax is a warning sign,” he said, pointing to a sharp regional divide when it comes to voter support.

In Halifax, 57 per cent of respondents said Nova Scotia was heading in the wrong direction, compared with 32 per cent in the city who said the opposite. In the rest of the province, 62 per cent said Nova Scotia is headed in the right direction and 27 per cent thought otherwise.

As for Houston’s approval ratings, a majority of those surveyed in Halifax (54 per cent) said they disapproved of his leadership. In sharp contrast, 67 per cent of those surveyed outside the Halifax region said they approved.

“Outside Halifax, voters are giving the PCs the benefit of the doubt,” Valentin said. “In Halifax, there is a much tougher read of where things are going.”

The poll drew responses through random calls to cellphones and landlines from Jan. 4 to Jan. 6. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Houston’s Tories won 43 out of 55 seats in the Nov. 26 provincial election. The NDP won nine, the Liberals held two and there was one Independent re-elected.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 9, 2026.