Fact-checking Trump’s claims that Canada has 300% tariffs on U.S. dairy

Bruce Muirhead, dairy policy expert and history professor at the University of Waterloo, explains the history of Canada's supply management system.

U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that Canada is taking advantage of the United States through dairy tariffs. Speaking to reporters in the White House Rose Garden to announce his global tariffs on April 3, Trump said that Canada imposes a 250 to 300 per cent tariff on U.S. dairy products.

However, a closer look at trade rules and data shows these claims are misleading.

Trump has repeatedly cited those high tariff figures, and while they technically exist, they only apply to products that exceed Canada’s tariff rate quotas (TRQs). In practice, U.S. dairy exports to Canada do not come close to reaching those limits — meaning they face no tariffs at all.

“It’s a false claim,” Bruce Muirhead, dairy policy expert and history professor at the University of Waterloo, told CTV News.ca. “We do have tariff rates of 200 or even 285 per cent against American dairy imports — but only after they fill their tariff rate quota. And they have never filled their tariff rate quota. Ever.”

Muirhead said cheese is the only category in which U.S. exporters have come close.

“But for the others, it’s not nearly that much,” he said. “Everything else goes down to zero at the very bottom of the list — products they haven’t even attempted to fill.”

The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), which Trump himself negotiated and signed in 2020, increased U.S. access to the Canadian dairy market by raising those quota thresholds.

While Canada’s supply management system does limit imports to protect domestic producers, it does so in a way that is allowed under international trade rules.

High over-quota tariffs were introduced in Canada to discourage excessive imports and protect the domestic market.

“They just wanted to make sure that nothing further would get into the country beyond the TRQ,” Muirhead explained, adding that Americans have exactly the same rationale. “In fact, their percentage that’s open is less than ours. So, in a sense, it’s hypocritical — they want access to our market, but they have the same kind of system in theirs.”

Despite Trump’s rhetoric, Canada remains a major importer of U.S. dairy. In 2024, the U.S. exported more than US$1.1 billion in dairy products to Canada, marking an 82 per cent increase over the past decade. Canada is the second-largest international market for U.S. dairy, behind only Mexico.

Muirhead says part of the problem is the structural difference in the scale of dairy production.

“They simply produce far too much milk for their own market, and for their own processing capacity,” he said. “So, they are desperate to get unfettered access to our market.”

The proximity of major U.S. dairy regions to the Canadian border, makes it a desirable target for exports. But, Muirhead warned, “if you allow them unfettered access to your market, you’ll lose your entire dairy market.”

He added that despite the political attention Trump continues to give the issue, dairy makes up only a tiny fraction of overall trade between the two countries.

“It’s totally insignificant,” Muirhead said. “Why would a president focus on 0.1 per cent of trade between the two countries? It makes no sense at all.”

He says part of the reason is that milk carries enormous cultural weight in the U.S.

“No matter who’s in office — Senate, House, or the executive branch — they’re all just focused on dairy in a way that I don’t think we in Canada really understand,” Muirhead said. “It doesn’t have the same cultural resonance here that it does there. But for Trump, it plays.”