The Iowa caucuses, which are fast approaching, will for the first time this election cycle be the biggest true test of Donald Trump's durability as a presidential contender.
Since that fateful spring day in Manhattan, when he became the first ex-president in the nation’s history to be criminally indicted, his lead over all other political rivals has exploded.
Now, with just a week to go before the 2024 campaign season kicks into high gear, the nation and the world gets to gauge the impregnable aura surrounding the former commander-in-chief.
Surging candidates; ongoing legal drama; and an ever-changing electorate are just a few of the intangibles aimed in his direction, like a heat-seeking missile, attempting to pierce the veil of invincibility.
According to polling data from the Des Moines Register Iowa poll, the ex-president remains without peer among republican voters, although polling data has been frustratingly unreliable in the last two presidential election cycles.
The caucuses will give Iowa voters the chance to reveal answers to probing issues including: the potency of Trump's candidacy; the nation’s appetite for a criminal defendant masquerading as a presidential contender; and more importantly, the survivability of the United States as a democracy.
The mercurial billionaire’s intense battles, since leaving federal office, are legion. Now, with his real-estate empire hanging in the balance and his freedom on the line, it is do-or-die for the one-time casino owner. Win and it’s another memorable walk down Pennsylvania Avenue on Inauguration Day in January 2025. Lose and it’s snake eyes for the twice-impeached ex-president.
Supporters wait to enter a former President Donald Trump commit to caucus rally, Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023, in Waterloo, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
New York Attorney General Letitia James’ US$250-million civil trial will come to an end just as caucus-goers are preparing to assemble. Again, another crucial moment that could influence the decision of the first-in-nation caucus goers.
Still, as the countdown to judgment day continues, Trump's bellicosity becomes more extreme and volatile. Promises of retribution and authoritarianism mark only the beginning of the seismic changes of a second Trump presidency.
Ever the chameleon, the business and political shape-shifter’s latest flirtation with fascism will finally be getting an up or down vote. Iowans will determine the depths and lengths of the GOP frontrunners’ path back to the apex of political power.
That power, which Trump is already attempting to redefine should he win in November, is the central issue the courts are grappling with as he seeks to solidify his “untouchable” status. In a very real test of the limits on his political power, Donald Trump is asking an appeals court to rule in his favour that, as president, he is immune from prosecution. Such a victory, should the court side with the leading GOP candidate, could clear a pathway straight to the nomination.
History has shown that all great fighters met ignoble ends when becoming ensnared in two-front warfare. However, the former president has masterfully leveraged one of his ongoing battles (the legal) to fortify himself in another (the political). The master marketer; the colossal showman; the notorious carnival barker has taken a long-held historic norm of political warfare, turned it on its head and electrified his base. Thereby shielding him (for now) from recriminations, accountability, and failure.
Two impeachments, four criminal indictments, 91 acts of malfeasance, the spectre of financial ruin, and yet again, Donald Trump stands at the precipice of history and ultimate authority. If his lead holds, he will break the record set by former Republican presidential contender Bob Dole in 1988 by winning the Iowa caucuses by more than a then-astronomical 13 points.
The former White House occupant is poised to set a standard that will not be attained for generations. The presidential aspirant is on path to reach heights even his massive New York City skyscrapers never could. Etching his name in history as only the second president to lose re-election, only to run again and win and the first to do it in the modern era.
Not since former president Nixon tested the limits of presidential powers has an individual been so brazen as Donald Trump. He is forcing the nation's highest court in the land to weigh in and adjudicate the boundaries of that power. Even more startling, Trump is going beyond the confines of the presidency to questioning the entirety of the Constitution and the very framework of U.S. governmental structure itself. This, all from a man who single-handedly attempted the second overthrow of the American government in history.
Former President Donald Trump greets supporters as he arrives at a commit to caucus rally, Tuesday, Dec. 19, 2023, in Waterloo, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
Now, the electorate will determine, for a third time, if the nation is better off with power in his hands. Power which will likely absolve him of accountability for leading a coup d’etat on January 6.
Every U.S. presidential election is regarded as the most important in a generation. As Iowa caucus-goers begin to winnow down the nominees, much is at stake. The soul of the nation hangs in the balance just as much as the viability of the Republican Party. And yet never, perhaps since the presidential battle between Abraham Lincoln and Jefferson Davis, has there been an election where so much rested on the fate of one man.
Trump overshadows everything and everyone as the opening salvo of an election draws nearer. Multiple court rulings have stated unequivocally that U.S. presidents are not kings. Nevertheless, the former reality television star continues to assert just the opposite. Now, it will be the voters, not the courts, that will render a final judgment on this critical question.
And it is Iowans that will make the first move to determine if Trump is king or merely a pawn.
Eric Ham is a bestselling author and former congressional staffer in the U.S. Congress. He served as a contributor to TheHill.com and The Washington Diplomat. He resides in Washington, DC.
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