Wildfire forecast: What B.C. experts say should be expected after one of the worst seasons on record

Wildfire forecast released for B.C. The wet and mild spring has been less-than-ideal for enjoying B.C.'s outdoors, but it could be good news for this year's wildfire season.

The BC Wildfire Service is forecasting a slow start to the wildfire season with cooler and wetter conditions in June.

The fire hazard is expected to remain low through the early summer in many parts of the province.

However, some regions are expected to experience drier-than-normal patterns, including southern Cariboo, Thompson-Okanagan and Rocky Mountain Trench.

The province saw one of its worst seasons on record last year due to drought-like conditions and a deadly heatwave.

This year, the BCFWS says the longer-range forecast indicates temperatures will begin to climb to above-seasonal levels in late July and August.

“As we trend towards these warmer than normal temperatures, we could see fire activity grow through the latter half of the summer,” said Matt MacDonald, lead forecaster from the BC Wildfire Service.

B.C. has experienced unusually cooler and wetter weather in the month of May with temperatures that were two to degrees lower than normal.

“We haven't seen a very spring like pattern, it's been more of a fall like pattern,” said MacDonald.

The number of lightning strikes, which lead to a significant number of wildfires in the summer, is also down from 16,000 to just 3,000 in May.

B.C. has seen approximately 140 wildfires so far this season, only about 60 per cent of the five year average.

“If we look at the total number of hectares burnt, we're sitting at just over 600 and that's only five per cent of the 25 year average,” said MacDonald.

He says June rainfall will be very similar to May, particularly for the southern parts of the province.

“I need to emphasize that long-range precipitation forecasts, as much as we'd love them to perform better, there's just limited skill, it's slightly better than flipping a coin,” he joked.

MacDonald says his team, in partnership with Environment Canada, is keeping a close eye out for another heat dome.

“These types of events only become observable at the most about two weeks in advance. So right now really summer, there's no way of seeing those that far out,” he explained.

The NDP government announced $359 million in new funding for fighting wildfires in Budget 2022.

“We've made the largest investment in the history of BC Wildfire Service,” said Katrine Conroy, minister of forests.

“This includes $145 million. That will help us to transform the organization from into a year round service and shift from its current reactive model focused fighting fires after they start to a much more proactive model."

She says her government is focusing on prevention, providing $90 million to homeowners and communities through its FireSmart program.

It’s aimed at providing tools and information to protect homes and neighbourhoods.

It will be administered by the Union of BC Municipalities in partnership with the First Nations Emergency Services Society.

Eligible applicants facing a lower wildfire risk can apply for as much as $50,000, those considered to be higher risk may receive up to $150,000.

B.C. saw its third worst season on record last year when it comes to area burned, with roughly 8,700 square kilometres lost.

The 2021 season started earlier than usual, with a deadly heat dome shattering temperature records.

One of the most devastating blazes was the Lytton Creek wildfire, which killed two people and torched much of the village of Lytton.

Thousands of people were also displaced in the Central Okanagan.

Many impacted residents are still struggling to rebuild their livelihoods.

“We are working with those people very closely. The Emergency Management BC is responsible for most of that work and they have been working with the community of Lytton as well as other communities who have been affected by not only wildfires but floods, to ensure that they're getting the supports that they need,” said Conroy.

Last month, the federal government announced it was giving B.C. $416 million to pay for response and rebuild costs from last summer’s devastation.

The feds have also allocated $516 million in budget 2022 to train 1,000 additional firefighters and incorporate Indigenous traditional knowledge in fire management.

Those funds will also go toward helping provinces, territories and First Nations communities buy firefighting equipment and develop a new wildfire monitoring satellite system

According to the BC Wildfire Service, as of Friday morning, there were only four wildfires burning in B.C.

There’s been approximately 140 wildfires so far this season and about 90 per cent of those are believed to be human-caused. The cause of the remaining fires is unknown.