Canadian airlines are pulling back from the United States in a big way, as travellers increasingly choose to spend their vacation dollars elsewhere. But at Vancouver International Airport, the shift is playing out differently, with record passenger numbers driven by strong international demand. New data from aviation analytics firm Cirium shows Canada–U.S. flight volumes dropped more than 14 per cent year over year in the fourth quarter among Canada’s five largest airlines. Some U.S. destinations saw even steeper declines, including a one-third drop in capacity to Las Vegas. A national retreat from U.S. travel Aviation experts say the downturn in U.S. travel has been building for more than a year — and shows no sign of reversing. John Gradek, an aviation management expert at McGill University, says the shift began early in 2025. “We saw the downturn starting probably the first week of January a year ago, when we started hearing about the 51st state coming out of the Trump administration for Canada,” Gradek said.“Canadians are getting a little upset with that type of statement, and they wanted to make a statement, basically looking to reduce their frequencies of flights and expenditures in the U.S.” Gradek says the airline industry initially believed the trend would be temporary. “The industry was hoping that it would blow over by the time the fourth quarter rolled around … and then by the first quarter 2026 that we’d be back to normal levels. Well, guess what? It’s not,” he said. Consumers are driving the shift Gradek says this change is unusual because it’s being led by consumers, not governments or airlines. “This one has got some legs to it,” he said.“Travel is very discretionary. Food is not. So, travel is really the one place that Canadian consumers can be heard through their pocketbook.” He describes the trend as unprecedented. “This is one for the history books… this charge we’ve seen in terms of economic impact on the U.S. is not led by the government. This one’s led by consumers,” Gradek said.“You and I, we’re having an impact, and they’re feeling it.” What travel agencies are seeing Travel agencies say the data mirrors what they’ve been seeing in bookings for months. Amra Durakovic, head of communications for Flight Centre Canada, says demand for U.S. travel has fallen sharply. “Since February of last year, we have seen a market shift in demand to the U.S.,” she said.“We’re seeing a 40 per cent decrease from 2024 to 2025 in new flights from Canada to the U.S.” A recent survey commissioned by Flight Centre found that reluctance to travel south is likely to persist. “62 per cent of Canadians said they would not be traveling to the U.S. for 2026, and part of those reasons was politics, exchange rate, as well as border hassles,” Durakovic said. Vancouver’s experience is different At YVR, travel to and from the U.S. is also down, but not nearly to the same degree seen nationally. According to the airport, transborder passenger traffic was down about 6.5 per cent through the end of November. At the same time, overall passenger traffic rose 2.9 per cent, with domestic travel up 4.1 per cent. Stephen Smart, head of communications at YVR, says the airport is on track for its busiest year ever. “2025, we don’t have final numbers, but it will be our busiest year on record in the history of the airport,” Smart said.“So, we’re seeing more people flying. They’re just flying differently.” Asia-Pacific travel surges The strongest growth at YVR is coming from overseas, particularly the Asia-Pacific region. Passenger traffic to and from the region is up 15.5 per cent year over year, the largest increase of any market. European travel is also up 6.9 per cent. Smart says expanded routes and new carriers are driving that growth. “We’ve seen a big uptick in travel to and from Korea,” he said, pointing to the launch of T’Way, a new Korean carrier, alongside existing service from Air Canada and Korean Air. YVR has also seen the return of direct flights to China, expanded service to Japan, and increased flights to Australia, with daily service from both Air Canada and Qantas to Sydney. Travellers avoiding U.S. connections For many passengers, the shift away from the U.S. is intentional. Ontario traveller Craig Stober says he’s changed how he flies internationally. “Normally I would bounce through LAX, but I’m staying within the Canadian airlines,” he said. Stober says avoiding U.S. connections simplifies the trip. “Extra headache, extra trouble at the border, more security protocols. Here at the airport, you’re in, you’re out,” he said. What this means going forward YVR says Vancouver’s role as a Pacific gateway, combined with cruise traffic and connecting passengers, is helping keep demand strong, even as U.S. travel declines. Gradek expects the trend to continue as long as political tensions persist. “As long as we have a U.S. administration that keeps making noise about Canada, Canadian consumers will be making noise about avoiding the U.S.,” he said. For travellers, that means more international options, busier airports, and continued competition as airlines redeploy aircraft to meet changing demand. And for Vancouver, it means fewer flights south, but more people flying overall.
