‘I’m seeing stability’: Vancouver Island seeing a ‘balanced’ real estate market

Local experts say Vancouver Island's real estate market has returned to "balance" this spring.

Spring is generally known as the busiest time of year in real estate. This year, Vancouver Island is seeing a “balanced” market, according to local experts.

Paula Smith and her family own a home in Esquimalt. It’s currently getting a makeover with a decluttering and a new paint job.

“We’re confident that if we time it right and price it right, that we will hit the market and some other family will make this home their own,” said Smith.

The family hopes to have it listed by the end of the month. They have already purchased a new home that will give them a bit more space to move into.

Laura Oyler is a Realtor with Royal LePage Coast Capital Realty and is working with the Smith family.

“What am I seeing in the market? I’m seeing stability,” said Oyler.

She says the Capital Region’s real estate market appears to be in a balanced position. That is a far cry from its peak in 2022, which saw bidding wars and record sale prices.

“I think on the buyer end, buyers have some more time to negotiate a better price and to make sure that their conditions are met,” said the Realtor.

As for sellers, she says there is more inventory on the market now than in the past few years, so sellers need to compete to make a sale.

“There’s a little competition now so they have to zhuzh up their house and make it shine,” said Oyler.

Brendon Ogmundson is the chief economist with the British Columbia Real Estate Association and agrees with Oyler that the market is balanced for the most part. There are many listings on the market, although condo sales have been slow. Ogmundson says he did begin to see a shift in the market when U.S. President Donald Trump began his tariff war, rattling the Canadian economy.

“Around February, home sales started to fall; they had been around historical averages,” said Ogmundson.

The chief economist says sales are currently around 20 to 25 per cent below normal across the province, although some communities have been bucking that trend.

“Areas like Nanaimo or further up the island are actually doing OK,” Ogmundson said.

He chalks that up to affordability, considering that buyers may be more willing to purchase less expensive homes under looming economic uncertainty.

“In Victoria, the average price is a little bit over $1 million,” said Ogmundson. “The rest of Vancouver Island, the average price is around $770,000.”

Inventory is rising as new rules push for added density, and multi-family dwellings are going up all in communities around Vancouver Island.

That’s good for people looking to break into ownership, and also good for those who already own a single-family home.

“That does mean that single family homes become a lot more scarce, scarcity usually means that prices are a little bit higher, so if you’re in the market for a single family home, they are probably not going to get cheaper over time,” said Ogmundson.

He expects condo prices to stagnate as new units hit the market.

For sellers like the Smith family, that means if priced correctly their single-family home should garner a lot of attention from potential buyers once the “for sale” sign goes up.

“We are hoping for a quick turnaround,” said Smith.