Home sales rise nationally — but B.C.’s Lower Mainland tells a more complex story

There are new signs that Canada’s housing market may be stabilizing.

New national housing data suggests Canada’s real estate market may be stabilizing — but experts say conditions in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley aren’t moving at the same pace.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) says home sales across the country rose just under one per cent in October, marking the sixth increase in the past seven months. CREA describes the trend as gradual, driven by improved mortgage conditions and shifting buyer behaviour.

“Most borrowers are now getting quoted rates at three-point-something, as opposed to a year-and-a-half ago, it was five-point-something — and that could be a thousand-dollar-a-month difference,” said CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart.

Cathcart says clearer signals from the Bank of Canada are also helping restore confidence.

“We’ve really got a trend going here,” he said. “It’s a bit more modest than we would have thought maybe a year ago… but also the economic uncertainty around a trade war.”

Metro Vancouver: Slower movement and uncertainty

While the national picture shows rising activity, Royal LePage West Realtor Adil Dinani says Metro Vancouver is moving more cautiously.

“Broadly speaking, the national stats… reflect a stabilizing story,” he said. But locally, Dinani says “the market is stalled because of a lot of uncertainty.”

He points to both supply and sentiment as factors.

“There’s this fog of uncertainty in the real estate market that’s impacting buyer activity, buyer behaviour,” he said. “Folks are less inclined to go and make a purchase.”

Dinani says the region is in a rare position — with lower prices and lower borrowing costs happening at the same time.

“In my 20 years as a real estate practitioner, I don’t recall a time when interest rates were falling and prices were going in the same direction,” he said. “Historically, there’s an inverse relationship between interest rates and prices.”

He says Metro Vancouver also has near decade-high inventory, adding:

“With decade-high inventory, I would say decade-low consumer confidence, it’s really painting a more concerning picture for the balance of the year.”

Fraser Valley: Signs of movement, but still a buyer’s market

Some parts of the Lower Mainland are seeing more noticeable activity — including the Fraser Valley.

Realtor Caileigh Anderson says sales there climbed sharply month-to-month.

“Month over month across the Fraser Valley we’re up 17 per cent,” she said. But compared to last year, “we’re actually down 16 per cent.”

She describes current conditions as firmly in favour of buyers.

“All property types are still in a buyer’s market — quite a strong buyer’s market,” said Anderson.But she adds the latest shift is notable: “It was positive to see that slowly go down last month for the first time in a while.”

While buyers may have more leverage, not every segment is moving at the same pace.

“The area I’m seeing struggle the most is small condos,” Anderson said, citing high supply and challenges qualifying for mortgages.

For others, the timing may work in their favour.

“Upsizing is also a good opportunity,” she said. “You’re going to net more in your pocket on an upsize.”

The longer-term real estate forecast

Experts agree movement is happening — but neither region is surging.

Cathcart calls the national trend “slow and steady,” while Dinani expects Metro Vancouver activity to “trend a little bit lower over the next 60 to 90 days” before potential stabilization next spring.

In Anderson’s view, this is adjustment — not collapse.

“If there was going to be a crash, it already would have happened,” she said.