Toronto Raptors exceeding expectations at midway point of NBA season

Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes (4) drives toi the net as Philadelphia 76ers guard/forward Trendon Watford (12) and teammate Adem Bona (30) defend during first half NBA basketball action in Toronto, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn

TORONTO — A year ago, the Toronto Raptors were torn between pushing for a play-in berth or tanking for a top draft pick, but 12 months later they’re exceeding early expectations and positioned to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2022.

Head coach Darko Rajakovic was asked to assess how his team was doing after 41 games -- the exact middle of the Raptors’ 2025-26 season -- after Toronto’s 115-102 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday. Although the Raptors have a 24-17 record and are fourth in the Eastern Conference, half a game up on the Sixers, Rajakovic said he didn’t want Toronto’s young players to lose sight of their development process.

“This is the best league in the world, so we’ve got to be constantly hungry and humble at the same time,” said Rajakovic on Monday. “I think that’s the key for us: to be hungry and humble at the same time.

“We’ve just got to continue pounding the rock and our goal is to improve week by week, month by month, and to play our best basketball at the end of the season, and hopefully the post-season.”

Toronto had a 30-52 record in the 2024-25 regular season, finishing 11th in the Eastern Conference, 11 games back of the Chicago Bulls for the final play-in spot. They had the seventh-worst record in the NBA but slipped to ninth in the draft order after some bad luck at the Draft Lottery.

Expectations were higher for the Raptors heading into this season, largely thanks to the arrival of forward Brandon Ingram, with bookmakers setting their pre-season over/under at 39.5 wins.

With 41 games left in the season, it’s extremely likely that Toronto will surpass last season’s 30 wins and very possible that it will hit the over on 39.5 wins. BasketballReference.com gives the Raptors an 89.2 per cent chance of reaching the playoffs, with a 4.3 per cent chance of winning the East and a 0.7 per cent possibility of winning the NBA championship.

Rajakovic has repeatedly said that Toronto is still in a rebuild, and so he’s still focused on development.

“Players, individually, are getting better. There are a lot of reasons for us to look back and be satisfied with what we achieve, but that doesn’t change the fact that we need to go another 41 games, and every night is a hard matchup for us.”

The two brightest spots for the Raptors so far this season are Ingram and Scottie Barnes.

Ingram is having a bounce-back campaign after he missed most of last season with a sprained left ankle. He’s averaged 21.7 points, six rebounds and 3.7 assists per game, on par with his career numbers.

Barnes is arguably having the best season of his career, averaging 19.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.4 blocks and 1.3 steals, all above the averages of his five-year career.

Both are in the running to make their second all-star appearance, with Ingram 11th in the Eastern Conference after the second round of fan voting and Barnes 14th.

An ongoing issue for the Raptors, however, has been injuries to swingman RJ Barrett of Mississauga, Ont., and centre Jakob Poeltl. The pair are two of Toronto’s best interior scorers with Barrett’s drives to the net keeping opposing defences honest and Poeltl’s deft touch around the rim helping on poor shooting nights.

Without Poeltl’s seven-foot, 253-pound frame in the paint, the Raptors have had to put relatively small lineups on the court and rely on rookie Collin Murray-Boyles -- their first-round pick from this past summer’s draft -- to fill Poeltl’s significantly larger shoes.

The six-foot-seven Murray-Boyles said on Jan. 7 that it hasn’t been too difficult to adjust to the NBA.

“It’s just a different level of basketball, speed, the physicality. It’s just incomparable when it comes to college, for real,” he said after leading Toronto with 15 rebounds in a 97-96 win over the Charlotte Hornets. “It’s a lot to take in, especially as a first-year player; you have to learn a whole new system.

“You have to learn whole new refs and all that. So just figuring it all out, learning the do’s and don’ts of the league, going around the league, especially with the players and stuff like that, was very important.”

The Raptors visit the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday, host the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday, and then embark on a five-game West Coast road trip starting Sunday. The NBA’s trade deadline -- where Toronto might address its depth at centre -- is Feb. 5 at 3 p.m. Eastern.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 13, 2026.

John Chidley-Hill, The Canadian Press