'Distinct possibility' of visible Tau Herculid meteor shower in Monday night skies

TORONTO -

Space enthusiasts could be in for a treat Monday as the Tau Herculid meteor shower is expected to light up the sky – depending on the speed and distance of the meteoroids.

According to NASA, Earth will pass through debris trails left from a broken comet that was shattered in 1995.

If these fragments from comet 73P/Schwassmann-Washmann (SW3) were ejected at speeds twice as normal, onlookers can expect a radiant show.

However, predictions for what to expect a range from a never-seen-before event to possibly nothing at all.

“(A meteor shower) is a distinct possibility. We just don't know how much debris arose from the break up of the common nucleus back in 1995,” Paul Delaney, professor of physics and astronomy at York University, told CTV News Channel Monday.

“There could be a ton of stuff, literally tons of stuff that rain into our atmosphere tonight. Or it all could have sort of dissipated over the last 20-25 years.”

“But, it could be absolutely spectacular … what we call a meteor storm.” 

NASA’s Meteoroid Environment Office lead Bill Cooke described the shower as an “all-or-nothing” event.

“If the debris from SW3 was traveling more than 220 miles per hour (354 kilometres per hour) when it separated from the comet, we might see a nice meteor shower. If the debris had slower ejection speeds, then nothing will make it to Earth and there will be no meteors from this comet,” Cooke said in NASA’s blog post.

“It would be a really spectacular meteor storm, people are even quoting up to 1,000, meteors that would be visible per hour,” astrophysicist and coordinator for the Institute for Research on Exoplanets at the Université de Montréal, Nathalie Ouellette told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview Friday.

In comparison, a typical shower averages one meteor every minute, roughly 60 an hour, said Outtlete. However, the speed and direction of the fragments will ultimately decide how much of a spectacle onlookers will get.

“The issue is that because it's the first time that we're passing through this debris field, it might be that we're actually going to pass just in front of it and we're going to miss most of the really good big chunks,” she said.

While the actual speed of the Tau Herculid shower will be slow, reaching speeds of just 16 kilometres per second (10 miles per second), the potential for a spectacle is still there as the actual size of the mass distribution of the meteroid is unknown, according to the International Meteor Organization.

Additionally, the current new moon will allow for better optics during the shower.

“Typically if you have a full moon during a meteor shower it’s not so good because the moon is drowning out any shooting stars,” Ouellette explained.

“Because we have a new moon we’re actually going to have a pretty dark sky so that’s one piece of good news.”

SW3 was discovered in 1930 by German observers Arnold Schwassmann and Arno Arthur Wachmann. The comet was faint for most of its years until 1995 when it became 600 times brighter after being shattered and it dragged debris on its trail.

According to NASA, North American onlookers can look out for the shower at 1 a.m. for those on the East Coast and 10 p.m. for those on the West Coast.

Ouellette’s advice to observers is to set up in a dark area and arrive early to allow your eyes to adjust to the darkness.

“It takes about 20 minutes for your eyes to get used to a dark sky so be patient and whatever you do, do not look at your phone because you’ll ruin your eyes for the next 20 minutes if you do,” she said.  

With files from Rhythm Sachdeva