AI adoption could boost Canada’s GDP to $3.65 trillion by 2035, PwC study estimates

A Royal Canadian Airforce (RCAF) Airbus CC-150 Polaris aircraft is seen near a Boeing CC-177 at Canadian Forces Base (CFB) 8 Wing Trenton in Trenton Ont., on Friday, Aug. 8, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Spencer Colby

Canada’s economy could grow exponentially by 2035 if businesses fast-track their artificial intelligence adoption and respond to growing climate change threats, a new study predicts.

A PwC Canada report exploring ways to unlock economic growth forecasts that with swift action to close the AI adoption gap, Canada’s GDP could reach as much as $3.65 trillion by the end of the next decade. The report, released Wednesday, lists 2023 Canadian GDP at $2.89 trillion.

The report outlined three growth scenarios, each based on how fast key industries adapt to technological advancement, climate change, geopolitical tensions and demographic shifts, which are increasingly blurring traditional sector boundaries.

The degree to which geopolitical turmoil subsides or escalates is a significant factor in these estimates, as is Canada’s ability to adopt artificial intelligence across industries such as mining, technology and defence, which are increasingly seen as political priorities.

The premise of its most optimistic scenario, where Canada’s GDP jumps 9.3 per cent over baseline expectations for 2035, hinges on a co-operative global approach for AI adoption and public trust in cybersecurity.

Nochane Rousseau, national managing partner at PwC Canada, said he is “confident that the most optimistic scenario is credible,” but that so far, there’s a lag in AI adoption in Canada.

“Considering the economic condition that we have in Canada and the uncertainty also related to the tariffs, some companies are not making the required investment,” Rousseau said in an interview.

AI uptake in Canada is about three-quarters of U.S. adoption, the report, which reviewed survey data, found.

In the middle scenario, where global decarbonization efforts fall short of sustainability goals and AI adoption lags, the report projects a 6.9 per cent GDP boost over the expected baseline, or $3.57 trillion. The least optimistic forecast, which assumes geopolitical tensions hinder global efforts to collaborate and mistrust in technology slows its use, pegs GDP growth at 2.1 per cent above baseline, or $3.41 trillion.

Rousseau said there’s an opportunity for Canada to bridge its AI adoption gap.

Narrowing that gap will require investments and government support, the report suggested. Companies would need to devote more resources to research and development, and consider new approaches to scaling innovation, it added.

“You may remember that Canada was one of the initial players in AI,” Rousseau said. “The challenge for us is the commercialization of those technologies.”

Even if Canada’s economy realizes the most optimistic scenario, it would lag behind the U.S., which is expected to see a bigger boost of a potential 14 per cent over its expected baseline in the next decade.

“When we compare both results between Canada and the U.S., it is explained mostly by a much lower AI adoption by Canadian companies in Canada,” Rousseau said.

Rousseau said there’s an opportunity for the country to grow if different sectors work together alongside supportive government policies.

As Canada adjusts to new trade realities, the report estimates businesses would be left with limited resources to reconfigure and adjust to ongoing changes with climate change and tech.

Corporations will have to collaborate across industries and likely pivot to serve adjacent markets or compete in completely new sectors — similar to the paths larger companies have taken, such as by moving into the nuclear energy space to bridge electricity needs for their data centres, the report suggested.

For example, food production and consumption face pressures not just from climate change but also urbanization and shifts in consumer preferences. The report suggests the mining industry could help increase sustainable supplies of fertilizers, such as potash, to make shrinking lands more arable.

Overall, the report identified mining, technology and defence as key sectors among others that can benefit from AI adoption and government policies, and in turn, boost growth.

Since taking office, Prime Minister Mark Carney has unveiled major spending plans for national defence to help Canada meet the NATO defence spending benchmark of the equivalent of two per cent of GDP per year.

In June, Canada and its NATO allies agreed to substantially hike their defence spending target to five per cent of annual GDP by 2035. The new NATO agreement will see Canada’s annual defence budget increase to roughly $150 billion.

“We have a very critical opportunity to capture the value around the defence opportunity,” said Rousseau.

Earlier this month, business jets maker Bombardier Inc. pivoted its portfolio toward the defence sector, as its chief executive promised a larger portion of the firm’s total sales would be from Bombardier Defense over the next decade.

The defence sector needs everything from raw materials, munitions and vehicles to data, technology and AI – and all the related industries can benefit from the demand, according to the report.

For example, steel manufacturers facing tariff pressures could supply steel to a Canada-based shipbuilder, or a Canadian miner could provide materials for magnets and semiconductors used in modern military equipment.

Rousseau said the defence sector also opens up doors for parts, equipment and infrastructure with dual purpose – something that can be used for defence and civil markets.

Small and medium-sized businesses could also open shop for niche services such as precision machining or testing and certification, the report suggested.

For mining, Rousseau said Canada has an opportunity to leverage its critical minerals repository for electric vehicles and defence.

But tech adoption will be critical for miners, the report suggested.

Canada’s mining sector could benefit from AI and quantum computing to accelerate assessments and the permitting processes, which in turn speed up the mining projects.

This would also help reduce the environmental impact and resource consumption of mining explorations and other activities, the report said.

Rousseau said federal government policies are key to Canada’s growth.

For example, the government could establish a procurement policy that prioritizes buying goods and services from Canadian AI companies.

That means governments will need to set up policies that enable innovation, attract skilled workers and help instill trust in AI among businesses.

“Adoption is inseparable from trust and security, which heightens the imperative for governments to work closely with businesses to build confidence in what AI can do,” the report said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 24, 2025.

Ritika Dubey, The Canadian Press