Don Martin: Pierre Poilievre's road to apparent victory will soon start to get rougher
He may be peaking too soon.
Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives appear to be on cruise control to a rendezvous with the leader’s prime ministerial ambition.
This week’s byelection in a riding just east of Toronto featured a Liberal show of force, including campaign visits by the prime minister and a parade of cabinet ministers, to try to make it a close contest. It ended up being a cakewalk with 57 per cent of the vote steamrolling to Conservative heavyweight Jamil Jivani over the hapless Liberals at 22 per cent.
OK, so byelections are mostly low-turnout referendums on the government’s popularity and this was, after all, a Conservative seat. Yet the historically-high margin of victory seems to confirm all the lopsided polls foreshadowing a Poilievre majority in the making.
Still, despite this week’s Nanos Research poll which pegs Poilievre as the most popular voter choice for prime minister in 10 years, the Conservatives might be passing their best-before moment to send the Liberals back to a well-deserved term in Official Opposition, if not a return to third-party status.
Despite chronic Liberal efforts to render themselves unelectable by rolling out gaffe after gaffe over boondoggles galore while enduring global humiliation amid a carnage of fiscal ineptitude, there’s a chance the seemingly inevitable Conservative victory is not yet cast in stone.
The problem for Poilievre is that he needs an election NOW to capitalize on his party’s strong popularity. Having negotiated a pharmacare package with the tagalong NDP, the Liberals should be able to retain power until the scheduled vote in October 2025 - and that’s a long time to hold for the Conservatives a commanding lead.
So far, it’s easy for Poilievre to merely oppose everything, particularly this government where it’s fish meets gun in barrel, but the need to propose a future Conservative course in government is where the rocks lie for his breezy sail to victory.
While the Liberals have failed to hire judges, buy back banned firearms, refine medically assisted death and fallen down in a multitude of other areas where they promised action and delivered footdragging, they have introduced some popular big-ticket programs which will be hard to unwind.
When the inevitable ‘where?’ questions confront Poilievre’s plan to reduce the bloated federal government spending rung up under Justin Trudeau’s reign, the Liberals will unleash all manner of fearmongering about the takeaways coming under Conservative rule.
And that’s a big problem for a leader who needs growth in moderate support beyond his base to claim the majority he needs to govern without facing the risk of losing power to a left-leaning coalition of other parties.
Repealing the new pharmacare program will be unpopular for women who will soon have free contraceptives and anyone needing diabetes prescriptions. It will be hard to scrap free dental care for lower income Canadians. Subsidized daycare is impossible to take away now.
Poilievre can’t cut military spending, an underfunded embarrassment on the world stage Canadians want rectified. Health care transfers are untouchable as are the huge Indigenous reconciliation budgets.
The justice system would seem immune from cost-cutting given the Conservative law and order focus. And while there may be strong support to axe the carbon tax, Canadians will still demand efforts to fight climate change, which won’t be cheap.
Complicating Poilievre’s drift toward destiny as prime minister is the risk NDP support collapses and drifts Liberal as nervous voters strategically aim to prevent the Conservatives from winning so big they preside over a one-party Parliament with token opposition.
From every current vantage it seems unlikely Trudeau can rebound from fighting with the NDP for distant second place in the polls.
But the Canadian political battlefield is littered with leaders who went from ‘sure-thing’ to ‘huh, what happened?’ after a U-turn in their fortunes once voters tuned into the campaign.
Paul Martin’s so-called ‘juggernaut’ was supposed to hand the Liberals 200-plus seats before the new leader limped across the 2004 election finish line as one-term minority fizzle. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith was supposedly doomed to lose the 2023 election to a resurgent NDP. And, of course, the rise of Justin Trudeau in 2015 is Exhibit A for unforeseen political resurrections.
For peaking Pierre Poilievre, whose Conservatives boast a growing list of impressive candidates who hope to fill a future cabinet, the road to apparent victory will start to get rougher.
As the prime minister in waiting, his performance will be soon judged more on clear answers than question period.
That’s the bottom line.
IN DEPTH
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
'Democracy requires constant vigilance' Trudeau testifies at inquiry into foreign election interference in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified Wednesday before the national public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's electoral processes, following a day of testimony from top cabinet ministers about allegations of meddling in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Recap all the prime minister had to say.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
'Some structural damage' from wildfire near Fort Nelson, B.C., mayor confirms
More than one home has been damaged or lost due to a massive wildfire outside of the B.C. community of Fort Nelson, the mayor confirmed Wednesday.
'Very expensive lunch': Sask. driver says he got a cellphone ticket for using his points app in the drive-thru
A warning from a Saskatoon driver about using your fast-food app while in the drive-thru line — a trip to get some free lunch cost him a lot more than he bargained for.
B.C. YouTuber ordered to pay $350K for 'relentless' online defamation campaign
An 'unrepentant' YouTuber has been ordered to pay $350,000 in damages as compensation for a 'relentless' campaign of defamation waged online against a business owner and his company, the B.C. Supreme Court has ruled.
Chief says grave search at B.C. residential school brings things 'full circle'
Chief Robert Michell says relief isn't the right word to describe his reaction as the search begins for unmarked graves at the site of a former residential school he attended in northern British Columbia.
'Endless Shrimp' just one misstep for Red Lobster as it eyes bankruptcy protection
While it's unclear what these closures might mean for the 27 restaurants in Canada, Red Lobster is expected to file for bankruptcy protection in the U.S. this month.
B.C. man shot sex worker in the back during drug-fuelled birthday, court hears
A man from B.C.'s Lower Mainland has been sentenced to four years behind bars after shooting a sex worker in the back during a drug-fuelled 43rd birthday.
'Inhumane conditions': 68 dogs pulled from Winnipeg home
Nearly six dozen dogs were seized from a home Wednesday morning by the Winnipeg Humane Society. It is the largest known seizure of animals in the city’s history.
Ontario's 'Crypto King' Aiden Pleterski arrested
Of the $40-million Aiden Pleterski was handed over two years, documents show he invested just over one per cent and instead spent $15.9 million on "his personal lifestyle." The 25-year-old Oshawa, Ont. man was arrested and charged with fraud and money laundering on Tuesday.
Driver said he smoked pot oil, took medication before Florida crash that killed 8 Mexican workers
A man with a long record of dangerous driving told investigators he smoked marijuana oil and took prescription drugs hours before he sideswiped a bus, killing eight Mexican farmworkers and injuring dozens more, according to an arrest report unsealed Wednesday.
Local Spotlight
B.C. musician's song catches attention of Canucks
When Adam Kirschner wrote 'Slap Shot,' he never imagined the song would be embraced by his favourite team.
'We're on standby': Team ready to help entangled right whale in Gulf of St. Lawrence
A team is ready to help an entangled North Atlantic right whale in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.
Thieves caught on camera stealing pet chicken from North Vancouver backyard
A $200 reward is being offered by a North Vancouver family for the safe return of their beloved chicken, Snowflake.
Adopted daughter in the Netherlands reunited with sister in Montreal and mother in Colombia, 40 years later
Two daughters and a mother were reunited online 40 years later thanks to a DNA kit and a Zoom connection despite living on three separate continents and speaking different languages.
'Reimagining Mother's Day': Toronto woman creates Motherless Day event after losing mom
Mother's Day can be a difficult occasion for those who have lost or are estranged from their mom.
Chris Hadfield inspires youth musical in Sudbury
YES Theatre Young Company opened its acclaimed kids’ show, One Small Step, at Sudbury Theatre Centre on Saturday.
Ottawa pizzeria places among top 20 deep-dish pizzas in the world at international competition
An Ottawa pizzeria is being recognized as one of the top 20 deep-dish pizzas in the world.
From outer space? Sask. farmers baffled after discovering strange wreckage in field
A family of fifth generation farmers from Ituna, Sask. are trying to find answers after discovering several strange objects lying on their land.
Wilfrid Laurier football player drafted despite only playing 27 games in his entire life
A Listowel, Ont. man, drafted by the Hamilton Tigercats last week, is also getting looks from the NFL, despite only playing 27 games of football in his life.