Conservatives still 'comfortably' in majority territory: Nanos seat projections
Support for the Conservatives has trended sharply up since the summer and if an election took place today, they’d win at least 166 seats compared to the Liberals' 53 -- with tight races in 76 seats that are too close to call right now -- according to latest monthly seat projections by Nanos Research.
The projections, intended to show how popular support for a party would translate into seats in the House of Commons, have the NDP at 20 seats, the Greens at 1 and the Bloc Quebecois at 22.
"If the election were held today, (the Conservatives) would win," said Nanos Research chair Nik Nanos on the latest episode of CTV News Trend Line.
While Nanos has declared 166 seats for the Conservatives, he said when you also factor the seats which they're leading, "they're comfortably in majority territory." In the current House of Commons makeup, a party needs to capture 170 of the 338 seats to form a majority government.
"The key takeaway here," said Nanos, "is that trend line where you can see the blue trend going up, (and) the red trend line going down."
CHANGES FROM 2021 ELECTION
The news becomes bleaker for the Liberals when you look at the seat projection changes from the 2021 federal election (see columns in the chart above).
Nanos's seat projection changes show the Liberals would be down 64 seats compared to the 2021 election, while the Conservatives would be up 61.
"Most of that (is) in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, where basically it's a Liberal decline and a Conservative pickup," said Nanos, adding that "there are still 76 seats that are too close to call in the Nanos seat projections, so maybe there's a little bit of wiggle room. But the trajectory is pretty clear at this particular point in time and the swings that have taken place, especially in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, are very clear."
REGIONAL BREAKDOWNS
Nanos highlighted specific ridings in each region where the more dramatic changes have occurred since the 2021 election. The comparison maps below show Nanos's modelling estimates in December on the left, and results from the 2021 federal election on the right.
British Columbia
In British Columbia, "what we're seeing, at least in Vancouver and Greater Vancouver, is that the Conservatives are poised to pick up a number of ridings," said Nanos. "The NDP are holding on and still leading in a number (of ridings). But … there's only one riding in the Surrey area that we projected the Liberals will hold onto." That one riding is Surrey-Newton, which the Liberals won handily in 2021 with 54 per cent of the vote.
Prairies
Nanos said there hasn't been much movement in the latest seat projections for the Prairie region, which remains a Conservative stronghold. But he highlighted one currently Liberal riding of Edmonton Centre -- one of only two red seats in Alberta surrounded by a sea of blue – that is being threatened.
The Conservatives are also giving New Democrats a run in the NDP seat of Edmonton Griesbach. The above mentioned ridings are coloured grey in the projections map as they're still too close to call at this time.
Ontario
In Ontario, the last federal election saw the Liberals do "extremely well," especially in the Greater Toronto Area, said Nanos. But that advantage is being eaten away, with Conservatives making inroads in ridings located in 905-area cities like Oakville, Mississauga and Vaughan.
It's not just a Conservative threat that Liberals need to worry about. Nanos said the "spots of black and orange" visible in downtown Toronto on the projection map represent ridings that the NDP could pick up at the Liberals' expense.
"If the GTA ends up unraveling, this is just where the Liberals are today, who knows where they'll be when the election happens?" said Nanos. "If there is an election held today, when we look at these seat projections, especially in Ontario, it would be ugly for the Liberals."
Quebec
While there isn't much change in Quebec with the island of Montreal holding strong for the Liberals and the Conservatives holding on to what they won in 2021, Nanos pointed to an interesting race happening in the Quebec City region that's not good news for the Bloc Quebecois.
While the Liberals are projected to hold on to the ridings of Quebec and Louis-Hebert, the Conservatives are threatening the Bloc (represented in light blue in the 2021 map) in two ridings -- Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix and Beauport-Limoilou. The Bloc won the latter riding by just 2 percentage points over the Conservatives in the last election.
"So this might be this might be fertile territory for Pierre Poilievre," said Nanos, "not to pick up a boatload of seats in Quebec; but perhaps knock off one or two and add them to the vote tally, which helps move them into majority territory."
Atlantic
The Atlantic Region, where the Liberals did "fairly decently" in 2021, also shows a blue trend emerging, said Nanos. In New Brunswick, you can see the riding of Fredericton has moved into the blue column while Saint John-Rothesay (the little black dot at the bottom end of the province) is too close to call right now.
More dramatically, the swaths of red in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island are now either being declared for or challenged by the Conservatives.
"So think of Atlantic Canada and Ontario as two of the key regions, including British Columbia, where Conservatives are picking up seats at the expense of the Liberals and are challenging the Liberals in a lot of these ridings," said Nanos.
BALLOT AND LEADERSHIP TREND LINES
In the final episode for 2023, Nanos and Trend Line host Michael Stittle also looked at how the federal parties performed in ballot support and the personal brands of their leaders, comparing the latest December numbers with the 2021 election.
The Liberals' current numbers are down seven per cent compared with 2021, while the Conservatives are up six.
"So this is what we're talking about, the new dynamic where Conservatives support is going up and Liberal support is going down," said Nanos. The NDP and Greens are up a few points, while the Bloc and the People's Party of Canada ticked down by three per cent each.
"The key takeaway here ... is the dynamic that's happened where people are drifting away from the Liberals, and a noticeable proportion of those people that are moving away from the Liberals are looking at the Conservatives as an alternative," said Nanos.
This trend becomes more apparent when looking at the "preferred prime minister" number that reflect Canadians' views of the party leaders. Nanos said a "dramatic shift" has happened on this front, "especially when we think about where the brand equity and strength of Justin Trudeau was back in 2021."
Trudeau is down a full 10 percentage points compared to when he secured his third general election victory in 2021, albeit not the majority win he was hoping for. Poilievre, meanwhile, compared to Erin O'Toole who led the Conservatives in the last election, is doing five points better than his predecessor.
"Right now you can see Pierre Poilievre having about a 12 point advantage over Justin Trudeau. But basically people (are) souring on Trudeau a lot more than they did back in 2021."
Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts. The next episode comes out Wednesday, Jan. 9, 2024.
METHODOLOGY
Nanos Research has developed a spatial forecaster that visualizes political sentiment modelling every month, which includes the integration of Nanos political sentiment modelling, federal election data and interactive maps. The Nanos Time Map Model accurately predicted the outcome in 290 out of 338 federal ridings in the 2021 Federal Election which is an 86% accuracy. Counting ridings which were projected as too close to call (within 2% [A] and between 2-7% [B]) as correct, the accuracy of the Nanos model increases to 93%.
IN DEPTH
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
'Democracy requires constant vigilance' Trudeau testifies at inquiry into foreign election interference in Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified Wednesday before the national public inquiry into foreign interference in Canada's electoral processes, following a day of testimony from top cabinet ministers about allegations of meddling in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Recap all the prime minister had to say.
As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
Siding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on her proposed restrictions on transgender youth, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre confirmed Wednesday that he is against trans and non-binary minors using puberty blockers.
Supports for passengers, farmers, artists: 7 bills from MPs and Senators to watch in 2024
When parliamentarians return to Ottawa in a few weeks to kick off the 2024 sitting, there are a few bills from MPs and senators that will be worth keeping an eye on, from a 'gutted' proposal to offer a carbon tax break to farmers, to an initiative aimed at improving Canada's DNA data bank.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
DEVELOPING Latest updates on the major wildfires currently burning in Canada
Thousands of Canadians have been displaced as fires burn in Alberta, B.C. and Manitoba. Here are the latest updates.
Slovak prime minister in serious but stable condition after assassination attempt
Slovak politicians have called for calm in the Central European country after Prime Minister Robert Fico was shot multiple times by a would-be assassin on Wednesday, a rare instance of political violence that came as a shock despite deep political polarization.
Protecting your car from the growing risk of keyless vehicle thefts
Auto technology has evolved and many newer cars use wireless key fobs and push-button starters instead of traditional metal keys. But that technology also makes things easier for thieves.
U.S. intelligence officials wanted to meet with Transport Canada's UFO 'lead'
Canada's transportation department had a UFO 'lead' who tried to 'quell' media interest and planned to meet with U.S. intelligence officials.
OPINION If you think you can't focus for long, you're right: Sandee LaMotte
Regaining your focus requires you to be mindful of how you are using technology -- a daunting task if you consider the average American spends at least 10 hours a day on screens.
Chief says grave search at B.C. residential school brings things 'full circle'
Chief Robert Michell says relief isn't the right word to describe his reaction as the search begins for unmarked graves at the site of a former residential school he attended in northern British Columbia.
Ontario's 'Crypto King' Aiden Pleterski arrested
Of the $40-million Aiden Pleterski was handed over two years, documents show he invested just over one per cent and instead spent $15.9 million on "his personal lifestyle." The 25-year-old Oshawa, Ont. man was arrested and charged with fraud and money laundering on Tuesday.
B.C. man shot sex worker in the back during drug-fuelled birthday, court hears
A man from B.C.'s Lower Mainland has been sentenced to four years behind bars after shooting a sex worker in the back during a drug-fuelled 43rd birthday.
'The Fly' has become notorious in France after a brazen escape. What's his criminal history?
A prisoner nicknamed “The Fly” has become notorious in France overnight after a daring and bloody escape from a prison convoy in Normandy that left two guards dead.
Local Spotlight
B.C. musician's song catches attention of Canucks
When Adam Kirschner wrote 'Slap Shot,' he never imagined the song would be embraced by his favourite team.
'We're on standby': Team ready to help entangled right whale in Gulf of St. Lawrence
A team is ready to help an entangled North Atlantic right whale in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.
Thieves caught on camera stealing pet chicken from North Vancouver backyard
A $200 reward is being offered by a North Vancouver family for the safe return of their beloved chicken, Snowflake.
Adopted daughter in the Netherlands reunited with sister in Montreal and mother in Colombia, 40 years later
Two daughters and a mother were reunited online 40 years later thanks to a DNA kit and a Zoom connection despite living on three separate continents and speaking different languages.
'Reimagining Mother's Day': Toronto woman creates Motherless Day event after losing mom
Mother's Day can be a difficult occasion for those who have lost or are estranged from their mom.
Chris Hadfield inspires youth musical in Sudbury
YES Theatre Young Company opened its acclaimed kids’ show, One Small Step, at Sudbury Theatre Centre on Saturday.
Ottawa pizzeria places among top 20 deep-dish pizzas in the world at international competition
An Ottawa pizzeria is being recognized as one of the top 20 deep-dish pizzas in the world.
From outer space? Sask. farmers baffled after discovering strange wreckage in field
A family of fifth generation farmers from Ituna, Sask. are trying to find answers after discovering several strange objects lying on their land.
Wilfrid Laurier football player drafted despite only playing 27 games in his entire life
A Listowel, Ont. man, drafted by the Hamilton Tigercats last week, is also getting looks from the NFL, despite only playing 27 games of football in his life.