By 2100, Quebec’s average winter temperature could rise by 6.6°C

Climate specialists say rising global temperatures are altering precipitation patterns and driving record warm winters.

The average winter temperature in Quebec could rise by 6.6 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, according to estimates by Ouranos, a consortium of some 70 climate science and adaptation professionals.

The Paris Agreement, ratified in 2015, aims to limit the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 degrees and, if possible, to 1.5 degrees.

But with the against climate change losing momentum, that scenario is becoming less and less likely.

During a technical briefing for the media on Tuesday, the Ouranos team presented what Quebec winters would look like if there were global warming of 3.5 to 4.0 degrees by the end of the century.

In this pessimistic scenario, described as “probable,” we can expect a temperature increase of “5 degrees Celsius in the southern part of the province” to “+9 degrees in northern Quebec,” explained researcher Angelica Alberti-Dufort, specifying that the average temperature in the province would increase by 6.6 degrees.

“The increase is more pronounced in the north of the province due to the Arctic amplification phenomenon,” which means that “the northernmost regions are warming three times faster than the global average.”

Global warming of 3.5 to 4.0 degrees by the end of the century means that the duration of snow cover could decrease by 16 to 25 days across Quebec.

Snow cover could begin 10 days later and end about 10 days earlier, and across Quebec, the frost-free season could lengthen by 29 days.

“People in Quebec City will increasingly experience winters like those in Montreal, and people in Montreal will increasingly experience winters like those in Toronto,” summarized Alain Bourque, executive director of Ouranos.

More frequent thaws

Winters will be warmer, and in the southern part of the province, “this will also result in a shift in freeze-thaw events,” said Angelica Alberti-Dufort. Warm spells, i.e., events where the minimum temperature is below 0 degrees and above 0 degrees on the same day, will not necessarily be more frequent, but they will occur closer together in the season.

In the southern part of the province, “where most of the roads and infrastructure are located,” historically “freeze-thaw events occurred from October to December and from March to May,” but in the future, “we see that they will occur much closer together,” explained the researcher, specifying that there will be more and more of them from November to January and from February to April.

“If we combine this with an increase in liquid precipitation during these periods, i.e., more rain in winter, it could become a combination of events that could be harmful to many infrastructures,” added Alberti-Dufort, giving the example of roads.

After heavy precipitation during a thaw, “there is a lot of liquid absorption in the pavement,” and if a freeze occurs afterwards, the water turns solid and the ice cracks the pavement.

“The phenomenon of freeze-thaw concentrated over a shorter period, increased rainfall in winter, loss of snow cover, and rain on snow (freezing rain) are all phenomena that will affect the integrity of our infrastructure, whether it be roads, buildings, and of course, hydroelectric infrastructure,” she emphasized.

To adapt to changing winters and cope with climate change, the members of the Climate Change Adaptation Expert Group (GEA), of which Ouranos is a member, submitted a list of 20 recommendations to the Quebec government in the spring of 2024.

The GEA recommends, among other things, accelerating the protection of 30 per cent of land and water, aiming for zero net land artificialization by 2035, imposing compensation for the destruction of natural infrastructure, implementing a national strategy of ecological corridors promoting ecosystem connectivity, and ensuring a rapid update of the Quebec Building Code.

These recommendations are structured around five strategic areas:

• Ensure preventive management of natural ecosystems and ecosystem services;
• Protect the health, safety, and well-being of all;
• Adapt buildings and infrastructure and ensure the resilience of essential systems;
• Promote the adaptation of economic activities and the financial system to risks;
• Supporting the adaptive capacity and action of all stakeholders.

- by Stéphane Blais

This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on Jan. 20, 2026.