Ontario at 'leading edge' of Omicron: ER doctor

Ontario is now at the "leading edge" of the Omicron variant wave — but there is a light at the end of the tunnel — says one emergency room physician based in Toronto.

Dr. Kashif Pirzada says the real wave of COVID-19 Omicron variant will occur in about two to three weeks when high case numbers translate into intensive care unit admissions.

"We're at the leading edge of this in Ontario," Pirzada told CTV News Channel on Thursday.

"Before with other waves, other countries showed us how bad it was getting, India with the Delta wave, Italy and China with the first wave. We are at the leading edge now for the first time and we don't want to be the headline. You don't want to be giving the data for a study in the future to show how badly things went, because that's how badly it's going to go if things are as projected."

Pirzada said the emergence of Omicron came at the "worst possible time," with fewer, and mostly burned out, hospital staff, and the Christmas week being the busiest time of the year.

"It sucks, it sucks that it's happening now, no one wanted this, but it's just the cards we were dealt, unfortunately," he said.

"We'll get through this and there's light at the end of the tunnel in the spring with anti-virals and better vaccines, and improved vaccines hopefully."

'GRINCH' VARIANT

New modelling released Thursday by Ontario's Science Advisory Table suggests the Omicron variant is set to become the dominant strain in the province this week, with intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy potentially reaching "unsustainable levels" in early January without "prompt intervention."

A recent study of cases in South Africa found protection against severe illness with the vaccine was 70 per cent, compared to 93 per cent with the Delta variant. Children also appeared to have a 20 per cent higher risk of hospital admissions with complications, although cases have been few and the data is considered very early.

"We should just call this the Grinch variant," Pirzada said. "It's the worst possible scenario that we could face."

Along with providing access to booster shots, Pirzada recommended going back to family "bubbles," wearing good quality masks such as the N95, and using rapid tests.

He said he also pulled his kids out of school last week, two days before it closed due to an outbreak.

"Really, you know, if you haven't pulled them out, pull them out now, especially if cases are high in your area and then we'll see how it goes if they can go back safely in January."

Ontario's public health units reported 2,896 cases of COVID-19 in children between Nov. 14 and 27, compared to 1,899 between Oct. 31 and Nov. 13. A total of 169 school-associated outbreaks also were reported from Nov. 14 to 27 compared to 132 in the previous two weeks. The Ontario government confirmed the province’s first two cases of Omicron on Nov. 28.

However, the risk of hospitalization and death from COVID-19 in children is much lower compared to adults.

Dr. Ronald St. John, former director-general of the Public Health Agency of Canada's Centre for Emergency Preparedness and Response, told CTV News Channel on Thursday that modelling, while a tool, is not infallible.

Asked if he thinks this could be the worst wave of COVID-19 yet, he said he believed it will be.

"No one can tell you the future but it's clear, I think or at least I strongly believe, that we're in for a very bad time, I'm afraid, in terms of the number of cases," he said.

"And the more cases we have the more chances are that some of them will become quite ill and end up in the hospital, and of course we want to protect our hospitals as much as possible."

THE DATA

The latest advice from Ontario's science table comes amid an increase in active COVID-19 cases in the province this month, rising to 14,065 on Thursday from 12,666 on Wednesday.

The latest data from the provincial government shows there are currently 147 people in intensive care testing positive for COVID-19, up slightly from 135 on Dec. 9 — 139 people testing positive were in intensive care on Dec. 2.

Of the 2,343 adult ICU beds in the province, 586 were available as of Thursday, with the rest being taken up by COVID-19 patients both testing positive and negative (165) and non-COVID-19 patients (1,592). Nine new deaths were reported.

Although more people testing positive for COVID-19 in recent days have been fully vaccinated, a greater proportion of unvaccinated Ontarians — more than twice as many — are testing positive.

Eighty-one per cent of Ontarians five and older, who are eligible for a COVID-19 vaccine, are fully vaccinated.