High-stakes battlegrounds: eight ridings that could shape the 2025 federal election 

This composite image shows, left to right, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh in Toronto on March 25, 2025; Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in Kingston, Ont. on April 3, 2025; Liberal Leader Mark Carney in Winnipeg on April 1, 2025; Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet in Saint-Roch-de-l’Achigan, Que. on March 28, 2025 and Green Party co-leader Jonathan Pedneault in Vancouver on March 30, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette, Sean Kilpatrick, Adrian Wyld, Graham Hughes, Ethan Cairns

With the federal election campaign in full swing, party leaders are crisscrossing the country to court voters. Where they campaign—and how well they connect with voters in battleground ridings—could prove pivotal in a 37-day race like no other.

Canadians will vote in the shadow of an escalating trade war. In a stunning turnaround, the Liberal Party is polling ahead of the Conservative Party, once widely seen as the favourite by pollsters as recently as January. The race also marks the first federal election under a reconfigured electoral map, redrawn in recent years to reflect shifting demographics.

Here’s a closer look at eight ridings where the race is expected to be tight.

Windsor West, Ontario

Located in Canada’s car manufacturing hub near the U.S. border, Windsor West is shaping up to be a battleground riding. The NDP’s Brian Masse has held the seat since 2002, and the riding has drawn significant attention from party leaders.

Last week, Liberal Leader Mark Carney visited Windsor to pledge support for auto workers. The next day, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh campaigned in the city—just hours before U.S. president Donald Trump announced auto tariffs that kicked in this week.

Carney’s visit wasn’t just about flipping the local seat back to red, David Sheinin, a political analyst and history professor at Trent University, said in an interview with CTVNews.ca.

“Surely Carney is appealing to local audiences but he’s also demonstrating that he’s an effective prime minister,” Sheinin explained, describing Carney’s recent campaign stops as part of a concerted effort to position himself as the best candidate to take on Trump.

Before the NDP took the riding in 2002, it belonged to the late Liberal MP Herb Gray since 1962, who won 13 consecutive elections.

Brampton East, Ontario

Early in his campaign, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre zeroed in on Brampton East. Speaking at a local packaging plant last week, he vowed to slash income taxes and cut government bureaucracy, targeting a riding that has flip-flopped during past elections.

It’s no coincidence Poilievre campaigned there. As in previous elections, key metropolitan areas will be crucial to any party hoping to form government, Richard Johnston, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia, told CTVNews.ca.

“That means the outer edges of Toronto, the Greater Toronto Area and the 905 area code,” Johnston said. The area code is a vast stretch covering much of southern Ontario.

A Toronto suburb with a large immigrant population, Brampton has long been a political battleground. It was a Liberal stronghold before voting Conservative in 2011, only to become Liberal again in 2015.

Brampton East sits in Peel Region, which sends a total of 12 MPs to Ottawa, making the area a high-stakes prize for party leaders. More broadly, Ontario remains a vote-rich province because it holds more than one-third of the seats in the House of Commons.

Peterborough, Ontario

Peterborough was formerly known as Peterborough-Kawartha, which, for nearly four decades, consistently elected an MP from the party that would eventually form the federal government. But that streak snapped during the 2021 federal election, when the riding turned blue, even as the Liberals regained power in Ottawa.

Sheinin, the Trent University professor, said the rural-urban mix in Peterborough makes it a particularly competitive riding, reflecting a broader trend in Canada’s most big urban centres.

“The cities, particularly in this election, are digging in on their support for the Liberals,” he said. “And the rural ridings have been increasingly conservative, not only on fiscal issues but on social issues as well.”

Conservative Michelle Ferreri is the incumbent for the Peterborough riding. She ousted Liberal Maryam Monsef, then a cabinet minister, in 2021. Ferreri will now face off against Liberal challenger Emma Harrison, a local farmer and small business owner.

Edmonton Southeast, Alberta

In a province where 30 out of the 34 ridings went Conservative in the last federal election, this reconfigured riding is one of the few seats in Alberta up for grabs.

Edmonton is also Carney’s hometown where he launched his Liberal leadership bid. “The city will likely see some of the same campaigning as Toronto and Vancouver,” said Johnston, the UBC political scientist.

The Liberals have nominated Edmonton Mayor Amarjeet Sohi for the riding, who left municipal politics to run federally. The Conservative candidate in the riding is Jagsharan Mahal, a lawyer.

“In Alberta, when you step out of the downtown areas, it’s a sweep for the Conservatives. The Liberals, and to a lesser extent, the New Democrats, tend to do better in cities,” said Nik Nanos, CTV’s official pollster. His most recent polling data showed that the Liberals have a shot at winning this riding, together with nearby Edmonton Centre.

Saint John—Kennebecasis, New Brunswick

The renamed riding was previously known as Saint John—Rothesay, which has been held by Liberal Wayne Long since 2015.

The riding now includes parts of Saint John, a manufacturing hub that sends 96 per cent of its exports to the U.S., making it Canda’s most tariff-vulnerable city. Earlier this week, Poilievre campaigned there, vowing to revive an energy project scrapped by the Liberals that he said would reduce the city’s reliance on its southern neighbour.

With redrawn boundaries, Long would have won by a smaller margin in the last election, Jamie Gillies, a political scientist at St. Thomas University, said in an interview with CTVNews.ca. “He won by about 5,000 votes in 2021. His margin would have been about 2,500 votes if the election data was extrapolated into the 2022 redraw,” Gilles explained.

But with U.S. tariff threats dominating the election, the Liberals have a strong chance of holding the seat, Gillies said. Along with the nearby riding of Fredericton—Oromocto, the results here could signal the direction of the national race, he added.

South Surrey — White Rock, British Columbia

The race in the riding could shape up to be a nail-biter this year, mirroring the fierce tug-of-war that often defines federal elections in the province. The Liberals under former prime minister Justin Trudeau scooped up many ridings in 2015 but ceded ground to the Conservatives in 2019 and 2021. The NDP, meanwhile, holds sway in urban centres in the Lower Mainland.

“The Liberals have recently improved their support in the Lower Mainland. They are likely to win a significant number of seats in the area,” said Nanos, whose polling data pegged this riding as a toss-up.

Known for a big retiree population and serene coastal beaches, South Surrey—White Rock has been a Conservative stronghold. The Liberals claimed the seat in the 2017 by-election before the riding returned to Conservative hands two years after.

Now, Conservative incumbent Kerry-Lynne Findlay is seeking re-election against the Liberal candidate Ernie Klassen, a small business owner. With the U.S. border just miles away, small businesses in the riding are already on edge over U.S. tariff threats, a wildcard that could upend the local race.

Burnaby Central, British Columbia

This redrawn riding is part of the former Burnaby South, represented by NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh. However, doubts are growing over whether he could hold the seat this year.

“We’re seeing fluctuation from former NDP voters in 2021 to the Liberal Party in 2025,” local pollster Mario Canseco told CTV News Vancouver. “If this happens in the (former) Burnaby South riding, then there is a real possibility that Jagmeet Singh cannot win his seat.”

During a recent campaign stop in Port Moody, B.C., Singh avoided a reporter’s question about his prospects in the riding. Instead, he highlighted the NDP’s strengths in the province and touted the party’s track record of championing for the middle class.

Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, Saskatchewan

The rural riding in northern Saskatchewan — population 71,488 — has been redrawn, a change analysts say could boost the Liberals’ chances in a province that remains solidly Conservative.

The recent redistribution could boost the standing of the Liberals, University of Saskatchewan political studies professor Daniel Westlake, told CTV News Saskatoon.

“A bunch of people that voted conservative in that riding in the last two elections no longer live in that riding,” Westlake said. “And that makes the riding competitive for the Liberals.”

Historically, this northernmost riding in Saskatchewan has swung among all three major federal parties. The riding is predominantly Indigenous and was held by Conservative Gary Vidal, who won the 2021 election by a landslide.

Vidal announced in April 2024, however, that he would not run in this campaign after the riding’s boundaries were redrawn and Meadow Lake—where Vidal was mayor before entering federal politics—is no longer part of the riding.

The new Conservative candidate is Jim Lemaigre, former Saskatchewan MLA for Athabasca. He will defend his seat against the Liberal challenger Buckley Belanger, a prominent local politician. Before his foray into federal politics, Belanger was a member of the Saskatchewan NDP and the longest-serving MLA. He had won every single provincial election since 1995.