Danielle Smith’s wordy separation question ‘confusing,’ poll suggests

Prime Minister Mark Carney says Alberta's referendum is a 'dangerous bluff' after Danielle Smith pledged adding a separation question on the October ballot.

A 37-word question proposed by Premier Danielle Smith to Albertans this fall has left half of the province scratching their heads, a new poll suggests.

The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) conducted an online survey between May 22 and 24, asking Albertans their thoughts on the premier’s new addition to the October referendum.

The pollster found that most Albertans were more likely to vote to stay in Canada, but half of respondents couldn’t understand what was being asked.

Angus Reid said that included “a significant segment” of United Conservative Party (UCP) voters.

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It said 38 per cent of UCP voters found the question confusing, as opposed to 53 per cent that said they could understand what was being asked.

If given a simpler question, Angus Reid said, the outcome is somewhat different.

“A hypothetical question finds that when Albertans are simply asked whether the province should either stay in Canada or leave, more respondents say they would opt to stay than in the first, official, question,” the pollster said in a news release.

The results of that vote would see 67 per cent of Albertans staying, with 30 per cent in favour of leaving.

When it comes to thought about Smith’s plans for Alberta’s future, fewer than one-third of people believe she is committed to having the province stay a part of Canada.

“Premier Smith is on record, according to media reports saying ‘she would prefer Alberta stay’ in Canada, but most Albertans indicate to ARI that they don’t believe her,” it said.

“A plurality (40 per cent), including 20 per cent of past UCP voters and two-thirds of past NDP voters, indicate that Smith’s motivations are predicated on hanging onto her job as first minister of Alberta.”

The poll also suggests that 19 per cent of Albertans believe Smith wants Alberta to leave Canada.

A further one-fifth (19 per cent) are of the view Smith’s true motivation includes Alberta leaving Canada.

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The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from May 22 to 24 among a randomized sample of 800 Albertan adults.

“Respondents are drawn from the Angus Reid Forum, a large-scale online panel developed to include Canadian residents in each of the 343 federal ridings in Canada and representative of the Canadian population by age, gender, family income, ethnic status and education,” the ARI said.

This sample was weighted to be representative of adults provincewide according to region, gender, age, household income and education, based on the Canadian census.

For comparison purposes only, Angus Reid said a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.