14 Quebec ridings remain toss-ups ahead of provincial election

The five Quebec political party leaders get set for the final week of campaigning. (The Canadian Press)

In one week, ridings considered “toss ups” in the Quebec general election dropped by half, with Christine Fréchette’s CAQ party taking the biggest hit.

A week ago, 28 ridings were under 70 per cent certain, and as of Friday, there are 14.

The poll analysis site Qc125.com projects the Parti Québécois to form a majority government with 66 seats (up four from last week), followed by the Liberals 37 (up two), Conservatives 15 (up one) and Quebec Solidaire nine (no change). Last week, the CAQ was projected to win seven, but this week that number is zero.

A party needs 64 seats to form a majority.

• READ MORE: Quebec party platform tracker

Of the 14 toss-up ridings, the PQ lead in six, QS leads in four, and the Liberals and Conservatives lead in two apiece.

Below are the ridings considered toss-ups. The 2022 winner is stated, followed by the percentage of the popular vote they received. The toss up candidates are followed by the likelihood of them winning, shown in percentage.

All numbers are, as of Friday, Oct. 2.

Arthabaska-L’Érable (PQ/PCQ)

*2025 byelection - PQ Alex Boissonneault (46.4 per cent)

Boissonneault (51 per cent) has a slight lead over Conservative Tarek Henoud (49 per cent).

Champlain (PQ/PCQ)

2022 - CAQ Sonia LeBel (55.9 per cent)

PQ René Branchaud (58 per cent) leads Conservative Adriana Szalontai (41 per cent).

Drummong-Bois-Francs (PQ/CPQ)

2022 - CAQ Sébastien Schneeberger (49.8 per cent)

PQ Charles Pages lead (52 per cent) has slipped with Conservative Myriam Cournoyer (48 per cent) gaining ground.

Hochelaga-Maisonneuve (PQ/QS)

2022 - QS Alexandre Leduc (50.8 per cent)

Leduc (68 per cent) holds a solid lead with PQ Maude Brossard-Sabourin (32 per cent) making up some ground.

Laurier-Dorion (PLQ/QS)

2022 - QS Andrès Fontecilla (48.8 per cent)

Fontecilla’s lead (52 per cent) has slipped over Liberal Randy Legault-Rankin (48 per cent).

Maurice-Richard (PLQ/PQ/QS)

2022 - Haroun Bouazzi (34.7 per cent)

PQ Aisha Issa (62 per cent) looks solid with Liberal Nada Boumeftah (22 per cent) and QS Anne Latendresse (16 per cent) challenging.

Mégantic (PQ/CPQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ François Jacques (46.5 per cent)

Conservative Jimmy Gagnon (61 per cent) has solidified his place ahead of PQ Debbie Fennety (39 per cent), with Jacques fading (<1 per cent).

Nicolet-Bécancour (PQ/CPQ)

2022 - CAQ Donald Martel (47.3 per cent)

Conservative Guillaume Langlois (53 per cent) has pulled ahead of PQ Jérôme Gagnon (46 per cent).

Papineau (PLQ/PQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ former minister Mathieu Lacombe (53.6 per cent)

Liberal Isabelle Sabourin (58 per cent) has pulled ahead of PQ Isabelle Millette (26 per cent) and CAQ Linda Gauthier (11 per cent).

Richmond (PLQ/PQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ André Bachand (46.4 per cent)

PQ Bernard Sévigny (45 per cent) has pulled ahead of Liberal Hugo Fontaine (34 per cent), whose passed CAQ Guillaume Rousseau.

Rosemont (PQ/QS)

2022 - QS Vincent Marissal (37.6 per cent)

QS Gisèle Pouhe Njall (57 per cent) remains ahead of PQ Pierre-Luc Brilliant (43 per cent).

Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne (Lib/QS)

*2023 byelection - QS Guillaume Cliche-Rivard (44.5 per cent)

Liberal Benoit Clermont (63 per cent) has pulled ahead of Cliche-Rivard (37 per cent).

Sherbrooke (PQ/QS)

2022 - QS Christine Labrie (41.9 per cent)

QS Stéphanie Vachon (50 per cent) has pulled ahead of PQ Gabriel Pallotta (49 per cent).

Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie (PQ/CPQ)

2022 - No results. This is a new riding.

PQ Matalie Bisaillon (52 per cent) remains ahead of Conservative Laura Tremblay (47 per cent), with CAQ Patrick Saindon (1 per cent) falling out of contention.