Calgary companies’ confidence boosts after a challenging 2025

Local companies are feeling more optimistic about their outlooks in 2026 after tariffs and global conflict plagued 2025.

Calgary businesses’ confidence rebounded moderately after a three-year low, but they continue to face significant challenges, including inflation.

Business optimism rose 13 per cent between the end of 2025 and the end of March 2026, according to a report from Calgary Economic Development.

That brings business confidence up to 67 per cent from the slump of 54 per cent seen at the end of the previous quarter, with many worried about supply-chain and labour pressures.

“Businesses are still concerned about the level of costs but not as concerned that things will change overnight like they did a quarter ago,” said Ruhee Ismail-Teja, vice-president of policy and external affairs at the Calgary Chamber of Commerce.

“Somewhat surprising given the level of geopolitical uncertainty and volatility in the energy market and the fact that it impacts costs right across the board but also speaks to how challenging 2025 was for a lot of businesses,” she added, saying the U.S. trade war and local elections and labour disputes led to a lot of uncertainty last year.

Small businesses in Alberta were less optimistic ending March 2026, with 55 per cent business confidence, according to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB).

“Right now, what small businesses are telling us is their biggest challenges are fuel costs and taxes,” said Kayode Southwood, Alberta senior policy analyst with the CFIB.

“Alberta likes to say it’s the most competitive province for corporations on tax rates, but when we look at the small business tax rate, provinces like Manitoba, Saskatchewan, P.E.I., even Nova Scotia have lower small business tax rates.”

Casa Bonita Foods, a Calgary-based manufacturer of tortillas, chips, salsas and seasonings, said 2025 was a challenging year due to tariff uncertainty, which led them to better opportunities.

“The U.S. did the work for us by becoming unfriendly and even hostile. They did the work to push us away. Now we’re happy to be doing business elsewhere,” said Sergio Llerena, Casa Bonita owner.

“Our Asian customers were also looking for alternatives to the U.S., so we were very well-received.”

Llerena said several trade missions in Asia helped secure business in Korea, Thailand and Singapore and get into Costco Japan, which is all helping grow his business.

“Now, the uncertainty is not if we’re going to make it, it’s how we’re going to do it, which is a good problem,” he said.

Now, the problem Casa Bonita and many other Calgary businesses face is the steep increase in fuel prices.

“Prices have gone up like 20 to 30 per cent since last year because of gas prices,” said Llerena, whose company is responsible for some of the shipping costs of their products.

The Calgary Chamber of Commerce report showed 65 per cent of businesses (up seven per cent from last quarter) saying their main concern now is rising costs.

Labour shortages remain concerning as well.

“Sometimes, we cannot get a container or a trailer because there are not enough drivers,” said Llerena.

The Chamber said businesses are also reporting that consumer demand is less predictable, which came in as the third-biggest concern, up 11 per cent and at its highest level in nearly four years.

Nationwide, Canada recorded its highest level of insolvencies filed in Q1 since the global financial crisis in 2009, highlighting larger economic troubles.