What to know about the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike

A Japanese flag flutters at the Bank of Japan headquarters in Tokyo on July 29, 2022. (AP Photo/Shuji Kajiyama, File)

The Bank of Japan raised its key policy rate to a 30-year high on Friday to help curb inflation, as widely expected, and financial markets took the move in stride.

The 0.25 percentage point hike took the BOJ’s benchmark short-term rate to 0.75 per cent, its highest level since September 1995. It will raise costs for mortgages and other loans, but also boost yields on savings deposits.

“It is highly likely that wages and prices will continue to rise moderately,” BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda told reporters. “Risks to the economy have diminished, but we must remain vigilant.”

Inflation has long remained above the BOJ’s target of about two per cent. It was three per cent in November, excluding volatile fresh food costs.

The 0.75 per cent rate is still low by most standards, but the BOJ has kept that rate near or below zero for years, trying to pull the economy out of a deflationary funk. Since the pandemic, most other central banks, like the U.S. Federal Reserve, have raised rates to counter spiking inflation and then begun cutting them to help their slowing economies recover momentum.

Japan’s own economy contracted at a 2.3 per cent annual rate in the last quarter, but improved business sentiment and price pressures have led the BOJ to relent and raise rates. Here are some things to know about its decision.

Japan’s interest rates rise while other countries’ fall

Since Japan’s economic bubble burst in the early 1990s, the central bank has kept borrowing costs low to encourage more spending by businesses and consumers.

Lower interest rates have also helped the central bank manage the country’s massive national debt, which amounts to nearly triple the size of the economy.

As Japan’s population has aged and begun declining, its economy has slowed and that led to deflation, or falling prices due to weak demand. Even with cheap credit, investment has lagged, stunting economic growth.

In early 2013, the central bank launched what was dubbed a “big bazooka” of monetary easing, cutting interest rates and purchasing government bonds and other securities to help channel more money into the economy. When the COVID-19 pandemic struck, the benchmark interest rate was at minus 0.1 per cent. The BOJ only began raising it in 2024, the first hike in 17 years, after inflation stabilized above its target of about two per cent.

A weaker Japanese yen has pushed inflation higher

The Japanese yen has weakened against the U.S. dollar and many other major currencies. So Japanese consumers and companies pay more now for imported food, fuel and other items needed to keep the world’s fourth largest economy running.

The strong appetite for investing in dollar-denominated shares of companies linked to the artificial intelligence boom has also pulled money out of the yen and into dollars.

So inflation has risen faster than wages, squeezing household budgets and raising costs for businesses.

Higher interest rates will raise the value of the yen against the dollar, likely drawing investment into Japan seeking higher yen-denominated yields. That could push the yen higher, given that the BOJ has signaled it expects to continue raising rates.

“The BOJ’s stance towards rate hikes reflects the fact that inflation is becoming entrenched,” Kei Fujimoto, a senior economist at SuMi Trust, said in a commentary. “If drivers such as a further depreciation of the yen accelerate inflation going forward, it is possible that the pace of rate hikes will also increase accordingly.”

World markets yawn

The planned rate hike was reported by Japanese media ahead of time, giving investors a head start on adjusting their portfolios.

Initially, the yen weakened after Friday’s rate hike, as the dollar rose to 157 yen, nearly twice its level in 2012 and near its highest level this year.

Still, even small changes in interest rates can have a big impact. Analysts have forecast that higher rates in Japan may undermine an investment strategy known as the “carry trade.” That involves investors borrowing cheaply in yen and then using that money to invest in higher paying assets elsewhere.

Carry trades are lucrative when stocks and other investments are climbing, but losses can snowball if many traders face pressure to sell stocks or other assets all at once.

Higher rates in Japan may also crimp demand for other assets, including cryptocurrencies. Last week, expectations about the rate hike caused the price of bitcoin, for example, to drop below $86,000. It had bolted to record highs near US$125,000 in early October. Bitcoin was trading at about $88,000 early Friday.

Risks for Japan

Judging the timing and scale of changes to interest rates and other monetary policies is the biggest challenge for central banks, given the time it takes for such moves to ripple throughout the real economy and financial markets.

Like the Federal Reserve, Japan’s central bank struggles to balance the need to boost business activity and create jobs with the imperative of containing inflation.

The BOJ held off on raising rates earlier given uncertainties over how U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs might hit automakers and other exporters. A deal setting U.S. duties on imports from Japan at 15%, down from the earlier plan for a 25% rate, has helped ease those concerns.

Ueda, the BOJ governor, noted that with inflation at about 3%, real interest rates remain in negative territory.

Elaine Kurtenbach, The Associated Press