Venture Global missed Wall Street estimates for second-quarter revenue and adjusted core profit on Tuesday as higher operating and borrowing costs and lower liquefaction fees at its Calcasieu Pass facility offset stronger LNG sales from its Plaquemines export plant. Shares of the LNG exporter were down about 6.9 per cent in early afternoon trading. Even so, the company raised its full-year adjusted core profit forecast for a second straight quarter, a bet that the conflict in the Middle East will keep paying off for exporters that have capacity outside of long-term deals. Venture Global has sold forward 91 per cent of the cargoes available this year at an average liquefaction fee of $5.05 per million British thermal units, up from $4.51 in May, and assumes the rest will fetch $12.50 to $13.50. “While we are going to do more 20-year contracts, our emphasis is going to shift more to much shorter contracts,” Chief Executive Mike Sabel told analysts on a conference call. The company reported adjusted core profit of $2.49 billion for the quarter ended June 30, narrowly missing the average analyst estimate of $2.50 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. Revenue rose 48 per cent from a year earlier to $4.58 billion but fell short of expectations of $4.66 billion. Plaquemines, the second-largest U.S. LNG export facility, primarily drove growth as it continued commissioning activities and ramped up production. Venture Global’s LNG sales rose 42 per cent to 466.4 trillion British thermal units. Sabel said within a few years the company should be exporting more than 1,000 cargoes annually. Venture Global raised its quarterly dividend by 122 per cent to 4 cents a share, and Sabel said buybacks could follow as spending on new projects slows relative to cash flow. “The first cargo we loaded was the first week of March 2022, and here we are in 2026 projecting $9 billion of cash EBITDA this year,” Sabel said, adding that the company was building “a big earning asset base that generates a lot of cash.” MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT SHIFTS BUYERS TO SHORTER DEALS Sabel said the conflict has not dented LNG demand, and buyer interest has shifted toward shorter contracts as the disruption drags on. There has been “a little more than slight uptick” in five-year contracting interest over the past 90 days, he said, while the company remained in a significant number of 20-year negotiations. “We expect to have multiple deals completed between now and the end of the year,” Sabel said. Venture Global lifted its 2026 adjusted core profit forecast to $8.7 billion to $9.1 billion from $8.2 billion to $8.5 billion. LEGAL DISPUTES OVER WITHHELD CARGOES The company, meanwhile, continues to face arbitration claims from some Calcasieu Pass customers, who allege it withheld contracted LNG cargoes after the plant’s 2022 startup to capitalize on higher spot market prices. Venture Global has denied those allegations, citing operational challenges. Venture Global has settled or prevailed in several cases and lost one proceeding. Two remaining customers are seeking damages in excess of $2.4 billion, which the company says should be capped at $425 million under the sales agreements. Sabel said he expected the next case to be resolved before the end of this year, having earlier anticipated a first-half resolution, and that a hearing in a further case would begin at the end of November. “You’ve seen us obviously settle several of them successfully, and we remain open and constructive on settling what remains outstanding,” he said. (Reporting by Curtis Williams in Houston and Sumit Saha in Bengaluru; Editing by Nathan Crooks, Leroy Leo and Matthew Lewis)
