U.S. stocks swing from losses to a tiny gain as uncertainty builds ahead of Trump’s deadline for Iran

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). (Photo by CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/AFP via Getty Images)

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks swung sharply Tuesday as uncertainty about the war with Iran increased ahead of a looming deadline  set by President Donald Trump to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges.

The S&P 500 fell as much as 1.2 per cent after Trump threatened that a “whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” if Iran does not meet his deadline at 8 p.m. Eastern time to open the Strait of Hormuz. But stocks rallied at the end of trading after Pakistan’s prime minister urged Trump to extend his deadline for another two weeks and asked Iran to open up the strait for two weeks.

The S&P 500 erased all its losses and ended with a modest gain of 0.1 per cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 85 points, or 0.2 per cent, and the Nasdaq composite added 0.1 per cent.

They’re the latest swings to hit financial markets  since late February because of deep uncertainty about when the fighting may end. During just the first hour of Tuesday’s trading, the Dow careened between a gain of 74 points and a loss of 425.

Oil prices were likewise shaky. The price for a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude to be delivered in May briefly climbed above US$117 before settling at US$112.95, up 0.5 per cent.

The price for a barrel of Brent crude, the international standard, eased by 0.5 per cent to US$109.27. It’s still well above its roughly US$70 level from before the war began in late February.

Oil prices have spiked because the war has snarled the production and transportation of crude in the Persian Gulf. Much of that oil exits the gulf through the Strait of Hormuz to reach customers around the world, but Iran has blocked it to enemies.

The worry in markets has been that a long-term disruption will keep oil prices high for a long time and send a painful wave of inflation crashing through the global economy.

So far in the war, Trump has made a series of threats to blow up Iranian power plants if it doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz, only to delay it several times. The possibility remains that Trump could hold off on his threats again, among other scenarios.

A year ago, Trump ultimately backed off many of the stiff tariffs that he initially threatened to put on imports from other countries, though they ended up higher than from before his second term.

“Investors are likely to remain on edge and markets unable to establish trends, probably until there is a clear outcome later this evening: a deal, the U.S./Israeli strikes intensify, or Iran’s retaliation becomes escalatory instead of proportional,” according to Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

On Wall Street, companies with big fuel bills fell sharply as high oil prices cranked up the pressure.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings dropped 3.3 per cent, and United Airlines sank 1.8 per cent.

Companies whose customers may have the least room to absorb the recent jump in gasoline prices also struggled. Dollar Tree slid 4.2 per cent, and Dollar General fell 2.6 per cent.

The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline across the United States has leaped to US$4.14, according to AAA. It was below US$3 a couple days before the United States and Israel launched attacks to begin the war in late February.

Stocks of health insurers helped support the market after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services said Medicare Advantage payments will likely see a net average increase of 2.48 per cent in 2027. That was well ahead of what some investors expected, according to UBS analysts led by AJ Rice.

UnitedHealth Group jumped 9.4 per cent, and Humana rose 7.9 per cent.

Broadcom was another force pushing strongly upward on the market. It rose 6.2 per cent after announcing deals with Google and Anthropic.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 5.02 points to 6,616.85. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 85.42 points to 46,584.46, and the Nasdaq composite added 21.51 to 22,017.85.

In stock markets abroad, Universal Music Group jumped 11.4 per cent in Amsterdam after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management offered to buy the record label behind Taylor Swift and Bad Bunny in a cash-and-stock deal valued at approximately US$64 billion.

Pershing Square argued the proposed deal would clear uncertainty that’s weighed on UMG’s stock, but its share price remained below what Pershing said its bid is worth. That could indicate investor doubt that the deal will happen.

In stock markets abroad, indexes fell across much of Europe. Asian stock indexes were stronger, with South Korea’s Kospi up 0.8 per cent for one of the world’s bigger gains.

In the bond market, Treasury yields eased modestly. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.30 per cent from 4.34 per cent late Monday.

That’s still well above its 3.97 per cent level from before the war, and the rise has pushed up rates for mortgages  and other loans going to U.S. households and businesses, which slows the economy.

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Stan Choe, the Associated Press. Writers Yuri Kageyama And Matt Ott contributed.