Newfoundland and Labrador to lead economic growth in 2026, Ontario to lag: report

The Hebron Platform, anchored in Trinity Bay, N.L., is shown in 2017. A new report by Signal49 Research says Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to lead the country in growth this year, driven by oil prices and offshore oil projects. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Paul Daly

OTTAWA — A new report says Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to lead the country’s economic growth for a second year in a row, driven by higher crude prices and offshore oil projects.

Signal49 Research, previously the Conference Board of Canada, says the province’s economy will expand 3.7 per cent in 2026, though longer-term growth will be constrained by demographic pressures.

The research think tank predicts Ontario will post the weakest growth of all Canadian provinces this year with the economy expanding just 0.2 per cent.

The report says Ontario and Quebec have been hit hardest by U.S. tariffs because of their heavy manufacturing sectors.

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It says overall economic conditions across Canada are expected to improve in the latter half of the year as hiring activity increases and businesses become more confident in their investment plans.

Richard Forbes, lead economist at Signal49 Research, says the conflict in the Middle East, demographic pressures and ongoing tariff uncertainty have had reverberating impacts across the country but have been felt unevenly.

“The increased energy prices have had benefits for some provinces, while the tariffs have been hardest on Ontario and Quebec due to the exposure in the manufacturing sector,” he said in a news release.

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Brett Bundale, The Canadian Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2026.