Nearly 40% of businesses likely to pass on tariff costs to customers: StatCan

Customers use self-checkout kiosks at Stew Leonard's grocery store in Paramus, N.J., Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2023, in New York. (AP Photo/Bebeto Matthews)

New data suggests that nearly 40 per cent of Canadian businesses plan to pass on tariff-related costs to consumers over the next year, though most expect to continue operating despite the ongoing trade war.

Statistics Canada’s Survey of Business Conditions for the third quarter of 2025, released Wednesday, found that 39.4 per cent of businesses were either very likely or somewhat likely to pass cost increases due to U.S. tariffs onto their customers over the next 12 months.

That’s compared with 15.4 per cent of Canadian businesses who were very unlikely or somewhat unlikely to do the same, while 27.2 per cent of businesses did not expect any cost increases due to tariffs over the next 12 months.

Although costs are expected to increase for many Canadian businesses in the coming months, “the proportion of businesses with a positive outlook has remained comparable with previous quarters,” StatCan said in a release Wednesday.

The survey found that 53 per cent of businesses expect to be able to operate for the next year or longer if the tariffs and counter tariffs imposed by the U.S. and Canada remain at current levels.

That’s compared to 5.8 per cent of businesses who anticipate being unable to continue operating in the current environment beyond the next 12 months, and 41.3 per cent of businesses who said they are unsure how long they’ll be able to continue operating if tariff pressures do not ease.

“Furthermore, 51.6 per cent of businesses across Canada anticipate being able to maintain their current level of staffing over the next 12 months or longer if the tariffs imposed by the U.S. and Canada remain at their current levels,” StatCan said.

“Meanwhile, 8.2 per cent of businesses anticipate being able to maintain their current staffing level for less than 12 months, and 40.2 per cent of businesses are unsure how long they can maintain their current level of staffing if tariffs remain at their current levels.”

Obstacles, optimism

The survey found that 66.7 per cent of Canadian businesses in the third quarter were very optimistic or somewhat optimistic about their outlook over the next 12 months, down slightly from 70 per cent who reported feeling the same in StatCan’s second quarter survey.

“Meanwhile, 13.8 per cent of businesses expect their sales of goods or services to increase over the next three months, a decrease from 16.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2025,” StatCan said.

“At the same time, 18.9 per cent of businesses expect sales of their goods or services to decrease.”

When it comes to cost pressures, however, less Canadian businesses expect them to be a problem over the next three months compared to StatCan’s second quarter survey, the agency said.

“In the third quarter of 2025, 62.2 per cent of businesses across Canada expect cost-related obstacles over the next three months, down from 65.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2025,” the release read.

“When asked to indicate which expected obstacle would be the most challenging over the next three months, 13.3 per cent of businesses expect it to be inflation, 9.7 per cent said recruiting skilled employees, and 5.5 per cent said cost of inputs.”