Many Canadian manufacturers eyeing U.S. move as trade tensions take a toll: KPMG

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A new survey shows trade tensions have some Canadian manufacturers deciding to move production south of the border or delay capital investments.

KPMG Canada said on Tuesday that 42 per cent of Canadian manufacturing companies indicated they have or are considering moving production to the United States. Of those considering relocating, 77 per cent expect to make the transition within the next two years.

Anamika Gadia, partner and national leader of industrial markets at KPMG Canada, said domestic manufacturers have shown resilience over the last year, “but resilience certainly has its limits.”

“Our survey clearly shows that while companies have been making short-term decisions to adapt to tariffs and trade uncertainty, they’re now moving toward making longer-term investment decisions,” she said in an interview.

“In other words, they’re not waiting to see what might happen with the trade situation, including the CUSMA discussions and they’re moving to make longer-term investment decisions, including investment decisions that see them shifting their production to the U.S.”

Results for the survey were taken from business owners, executives and decision-makers at 275 Canadian manufacturing companies between May 11 and May 29, using Angus Reid’s business research panel.

Last week, United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the U.S. is not renewing the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement “in its current form” — but the trade agreement will remain in place as negotiations continue.

The decision triggers a rolling annual review for up to a decade, at which point it will expire if an extension isn’t agreed upon. CUSMA remains in place unless one of the partner countries gives six months’ notice that it is pulling out.

The trade agreement has shielded Canada from many of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, but the country is being affected by separate sectoral tariffs on industries like steel, aluminum, automobiles and cabinetry.

Gadia said the issues go beyond the trade situation though, with Canada needing to create a competitive environment for manufacturers to grow.

“This survey clearly shows that manufacturers need to feel more comfortable and see some action from the government in order to continue to produce and invest and grow in Canada,” she said.

“Some of the key factors that companies have cited are more certainty around interprovincial trade barriers, they need more tariff certainty, they want to see lower corporate taxes, they want better access to capital and cheaper energy.”

The survey also found 57 per cent of manufacturing firms have paused, reduced or cancelled capital investment projects. Thirty-six per cent said they have scaled back investments, 12 per cent have paused their plans and nine per cent have cancelled planned spending.

Gadia said delays in capital investments may be a signal that those investment dollars are going to be redeployed into the U.S.

The survey showed 80 per cent of manufacturers were planning to maintain their Canadian headquarters, but 11 per cent were planning to move their head office to the U.S. within the next five years.

A loss of that size could meaningfully impact Canada’s gross domestic product, KPMG Canada said.

According to figures from the federal government, the manufacturing sector represents about 10 per cent of Canada’s overall GDP.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 7, 2026.

Daniel Johnson, The Canadian Press