Nova Scotia’s strong population growth has tapered off for the first time since 2020

A passenger ferry, operated by Halifax Transit, makes its way across the Halifax harbour to the Woodside ferry terminal in Dartmouth, N.S., on Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2022. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Doug Ives

HALIFAX — The population boom recorded in Nova Scotia since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to have come to an end.

Statistics Canada’s latest numbers show that as of Oct. 1, there were 1,091,857 people in the province, a decline of 1,388 from July 1, 2025. That 0.13 per cent slide marked the first decline since the same period in 2020, and the first substantial drop since March 2015.

The federal agency said the population dip was part of a broader trend. Preliminary estimates indicate that Canada’s population decreased by 76,068 people, or 0.2 per cent, between July 1 and Oct. 1. The decline was largely due to a drop in non-permanent residents caused by increased government restrictions on granting study and work permits.

“I don’t think it’s just a blip,” said Fred Bergman, senior policy analyst with Atlantic Economic Council. “Part of this is obviously driven by changes to our immigration and non-permanent resident targets .... At some point, it will bottom out in terms of its impact.”

International immigration also shrank in Nova Scotia during the same period. The number of non-permanent residents leaving the province between July 1 and Oct. 1 was 7,815 -- far higher than the number entering the province at 4,701.

Meanwhile, the province’s small population slide comes after a decade of impressive growth.

In February 2022, Statistics Canada released five-year census data showing that between 2016 and 2021, Nova Scotia had largely succeeded in reversing a decades-long decline in population, thanks in part to a steady influx of Canadians from other provinces.

For the first time since the 1981-86 census, more people had moved to the Maritimes from other parts of Canada than had moved away. And by December 2021, Nova Scotia’s population had reached a historic milestone, topping one million souls for the first time.

The federal numbers show that during the past five years, Nova Scotia’s upward population trend has held a steady pace, fuelling economic growth but also putting pressure on the province’s health-care system, housing supply and transportation infrastructure.

“(But) the upside to lower population growth, from a government perspective, is you don’t have to spend as much on health care, education, community services and infrastructure,” Bergman said.

“You don’t have to address housing affordability as much or housing in general and you don’t have to have as many doctors or nurses .... So there’s a silver lining here.”

Meanwhile, successive provincial governments have drawn heavily from revenues that have steadily risen from $12.4 billion in fiscal 2020-21 to $18.2 billion in 2024-25, when taxes made up 51 per cent of all government revenue.

But on Thursday, Finance Minister John Lohr confirmed projected revenue for 2025-26 was expected to drop by $1.6 billion, to $16.6 billion, as he released the province’s latest financial update.

When asked about impact of the population slump on the public purse, Lohr said the government had to focus on growing the economy to turn things around.

“We know that as the economy grows, that will draw in workers from other parts of Canada,” he said, adding that budget cutbacks are coming. “That’s pretty key for us, to do everything we can do as a province to grow our own economy.”

The government is also projecting a $1.29-billion deficit in the current fiscal year, the highest on record.

Bergman said dealing with such a large shortfall will be a challenge.

“But at least we have easing population that will ease some of those spending pressures,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 18, 2025.

Michael MacDonald