More October heat, mid-week rain, and a new tropical storm

People rest on chairs on the Halifax Waterfront in Halifax on Thursday, July 6, 2023. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darren Calabrese

The weather won’t be quite as hot as Monday but there is still a chance at some record-high temperatures in the Maritimes Tuesday. CTV Meteorologist Kalin Mitchell is also tracking a cold front that will cool temperatures and bring rain through the mid-week. Tropical Storm Jerry has developed in the Atlantic and is expected to become a hurricane.

Tuesday heat

The Maritimes is now on the backside of the heat ridge that built up and out of the United States. Tuesday’s temperatures won’t be quite as hot as Monday’s, but could still reach the mid-to-high 20s away from the coast.

Coastal areas in general should have more moderate temperatures on Tuesday, with highs forecast to mostly range from the high-teens into the low 20s. The reason for that is a steady southwest wind blowing onshore off of ocean waters. The onshore winds are also keeping marine cloud and fog trapped along the Bay of Fundy coastline in New Brunswick and the southwestern coastline of Nova Scotia.

Areas that are most likely to set new record high temperatures for an Oct. 7 include non-coastal areas of New Brunswick, the Annapolis Valley and North Shore of Nova Scotia. Widespread record highs were set in the Maritimes on Monday.

Tracking a cold front

A cold front moving through Quebec will enter the Maritimes on Wednesday bringing rain and cool down.

Rain will develop Tuesday night in northern areas of New Brunswick. Rain continues to develop across that province and Prince Edward Island through the day Wednesday and will start to reach northern and western areas of Nova Scotia by late Wednesday afternoon.

The rain clears New Brunswick Wednesday evening, while Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island can expect the rain to clear Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.

Rain amounts of 10 to 30 mm can be expected. Highly localized pockets of 30 to 45 mm of rain are also possible. Two to three rain events like this a week over the next several weeks would be ideal, however there is still not much sign in the long-range weather pattern to expect that type of trend.

The air moving in behind the front is a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler. The Maritimes can expect high temperatures on Thursday to be knocked down into a range of nine to 14 degrees. The end of this week will be cool, even chilly.

Tropical Storm Jerry

At noon on Tuesday the National Hurricane Center declared an area being monitored in the southwestern Atlantic as Tropical Storm Jerry. The developing storm has maximum sustained winds near 75 km/h and is moving westward near 39 km/h.

Jerry is forecast to become a category-one hurricane as it passes by the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean Thursday morning. The hurricane should approach the area around Bermuda by the end of the weekend.

Beyond that, very long-range computer model guidance suggests that once Jerry moves north of Bermuda it will take the same sharp turn to the east that most of the Atlantic storms have this season. The eastward turn will once again be encouraged by persistent high pressure centred around eastern Canada and the northeastern United States.

Tropical storms and hurricanes often see significant change in expected track and intensity beyond a forecast of five days. Jerry will need to be monitored in the Maritimes until there is a high degree of certainty it will take that sharp eastern turn once passed Bermuda.