March madness: Snowfall warnings issued in New Brunswick

CTV Atlantic meteorologist Kalin Mitchell explains when a round of heavy, spring snow will arrive in the Maritimes Monday into Tuesday.

Who had 10-to-20 cm of spring snow in their March weather bracket? Parts of New Brunswick and western Prince Edward Island are lined up for that snow Monday evening and night while other parts of the Maritimes will pick up a mix of snow turning to rain.

Spring snow

The mix of weather is a result of a developing low-pressure system moving out of the northeastern U.S., through the Bay of Fundy, and exiting northeast over the Gulf of St. Lawrence early Tuesday morning.

A band of heavy snow is expected just to the north of the track of the low. That runs from southwestern New Brunswick, through Fredericton, Miramichi and parts of eastern New Brunswick, then Summerside and west in Prince Edward Island.

That area of the Maritimes is under a combination of Snowfall Warnings and Special Weather Statements by Environment Canada. The Snowfall Warning calls for totals of 15 cm and the statement calls for snow that could approach 15 cm. Most of the snow will fall Monday evening through early Tuesday morning.

One Wind Warning has been issued due to the passing system. It is in effect for northern Inverness County in Cape Breton where areas from Margaree Harbour to Bay St. Lawrence can expect southeast gusts up to 110 km/h overnight into early Tuesday morning.

Snowy Monday evening commutes

The steady, even heavy at times snow develops across New Brunswick late Monday afternoon through evening. Areas under a Snowfall Warning or Special Weather Statement can expect snow rates of one-to-four centimetres an hour at times.

Weather conditions will be at their worst in McAdam, N.B., 4 p.m. to 10 p.m., 5 p.m. to midnight for Fredericton, and 10 p.m. to 2 a.m. for Miramichi. Communities in western Prince Edward Island – O’Leary as an example – can expect the bulk of the snow to fall between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m.

Even Nova Scotia should be cautious of a brief period of snow creating some slick spots Monday evening. Initial snow for that province may be as much as one-to-four centimetres before switching to rain. The rain and milder temperatures will melt away any snow by and through Tuesday morning.

Milder temperatures in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island will melt a good portion, if not all, of the fallen through the day on Tuesday.

March snow records

Despite the heavier spring snow expected for some areas, it may be tough to approach some of the standing snowfall records for a March 24.

The record for the Fredericton area is 25 cm set on March 24, 1875. Miramichi had a record-setting snowfall of 18 cm on March 24, 1960. Some locations in New Brunswick that might have a chance at the record include Woodstock (eight cm set in 1977) and Grand Manan (three cm set in 1995).

In Prince Edward Island the standing snowfall record for a March 24 at Summerside is 18 cm, set on March 24, 1967. I expect up to near 10 cm of snow for Summerside from this system.

A number of March 24 snowfall records in the Maritimes go back to the 1967 storm. It was a late season Nor’easter that interacted with an unseasonably round of cold air that swept into the Maritimes from Northern Quebec. Other snow record associated with that storm include 30 cm for Saint John, N.B., and 25 cm in the Annapolis Valley of Nova Scotia.

The largest March 24 snowfall on record I can find for the Maritimes happened for Sydney, N.S., with an astounding 53 cm of snow reported on March 24, 1935.