What kind of weather can Maritimers expect this fall?

Showers for the Maritimes on Tuesday as we get the falls season started. Gabrielle is major hurricane but will move away from the our region.

By the astronomical definitions, we will roll over into the fall season following the Autumnal Equinox at 3:19 p.m. on Monday. Our first week of fall will feature some showers and a chance of rain. Seasonal predictions anticipate warmer than average temperatures and near-to-below normal precipitation.

Falling into the season

The Autumnal Equinox is the moment the sun appears to cross the equator heading southward. It doesn’t quite mark the day of 12 hours daylight and 12 hours of night due to how sunrise and sunset are defined. That day will be Thursday, Sept. 25 for the Maritimes.

The peak of the fall colours for much of the Maritimes occurs between the very end of September through mid-October. Due to tree stress created by the prolonged summer drought, the display may not be quite as spectacular as previous years. You should still expect a good showing though so make sure to visit your favourite fall foliage spots.

Daylight saving time ends on Sunday, Nov. 2 with the clocks turning back an hour. The region will lose about three hours and 20 minutes of daylight by the Winter Solstice, which will be on Dec. 21 this year.

The first full moon of fall – which referred to as the Harvest Moon – will be the night of Oct. 6.

Weekly weather outlook

A weather front moves out of Quebec and crosses the Maritimes Tuesday.

It will bring increased cloudiness and showers to the region. Showers will develop in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island Tuesday morning and will reach northern and eastern areas of Nova Scotia Tuesday afternoon.

There will be a further round of showers for Nova Scotia Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with rain amounts of several millimetres.

The next chance of wet weather comes with a low-pressure system moving out of the northeastern U.S. on Friday. Rain and showers are expected for the Maritimes with the highest chance of a steadier rainfall for the province of Nova Scotia. Current guidance suggests a possible 10-to-20 mm rainfall with pockets of 20-plus mm. Given the drought conditions, that amount of rain would be very welcome.

Seasonal outlook

The Canadian seasonal prediction system operated by Environment and Climate Change Canada favours a fall with above-normal temperatures and near-to-below normal precipitation for the Maritimes.

Areas highlighted to have the highest chance of above-normal temperatures include Prince Edward Island and eastern Nova Scotia. The South Shore of Nova Scotia has the highest chance of near-normal temperatures.

Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and southern/eastern areas of New Brunswick are given the highest chance of being below-normal for precipitation for the month. Northern and western areas of New Brunswick are given the highest chance of near-normal precipitation.

I’ve yet to see any substantial change in the larger scale weather patterns that have fostered the drought conditions going back to the summer.