Bad news for the parts of Canada where winter feels like an guest that’s overstayed its welcome: it’s sticking around for two more weeks. Environment Canada is forecasting winter-like weather for the eastern half of the country until at least the end of March – well past the start of spring – with possible below-seasonal temperatures for weeks beyond.
Environment Canada meteorologist Matt MacDonald says his agency expects a slower spring warm-up than usual from Manitoba eastward.
“I can say with quite a high level of certainty that this cold weather is here to stay until the end of March,” he told CTVNews.ca, noting it’s difficult to predict weather beyond two weeks away with a high level of accuracy. “Looking forward, there’s no reprieve from this. The Polar Vortex is still stationed over the eastern part of the country.”
The Polar Vortex, an icy Arctic air system, has spent more time further south this year than in a typical winter. Its effects will be offset by the brighter sun that comes with the springtime, MacDonald said, but the unusual amount of snow and ice build-up may act as a counterbalance, helping to keep things cool. Lighter colours reflect the sun’s rays more than darker ones, he explained, so the more snow on the ground, the more sunshine that is reflected into space and not absorbed into the earth.
“The enormous amount of ice on the Great Lakes plays a big part in this,” MacDonald said, adding that as of the third week of March, the lakes were at 92 per cent ice coverage, the most since the mid-1970s.”It’s a positive feedback loop. It’s so cold that ice builds up, but because of the ice, it won’t get warmer.”
Despite the drab outlook in the east, Western Canada is already starting to warm up, with above-average temperatures in the long-range spring forecast for southern British Columbia.
According to Environment Canada’s spring projections, most of the North will also see warmer than usual temperatures into May, particularly parts of Nunavut.
Slow melt could lower flood risk
CTV Vancouver meteorologist Michael Kuss says he expects fairly typical spring weather in the west, noting Saskatchewan's temperatures are hovering around seasonal and Alberta has already had a spring runoff advisory due to a recent warm-up. The snowpack in the mountains is at average levels, so barring any sudden warm spells with lots of rain, flooding shouldn’t be a major threat this year, he said.
“Remember, last year’s Calgary flood was more rainfall-driven than melt-driven,” he said. The melt situation in Manitoba is looking good as well, he added, thanks to lower-than-average snowfall in the Dakotas, which share a watershed with the Winnipeg area.
“That said, in any of these scenarios, if you get a week of 25-degree days, that forecast could change.”
Great Lakes ice
A slow melt would be a great boon to the Great Lakes region as well, says Marc Gaden, spokesperson for the Great Lakes Fishery Commission. Tasked by a Canada-U.S. treaty to improve and perpetuate fish stocks, the Michigan-based organization co-ordinates fisheries research between the two countries, works to reduce the invasive sea lamprey population and makes recommendations to government on lakes management.
Gaden – who teaches water policy at the University of Michigan – says all the snow the region received this year will be good for the lakes if it can get there gradually, not through a massive storm or sudden melt.
“A lot of us are hoping more water going into the lakes will be restorative… but if the snow melts quickly, a lot of it will end up picking up everything it comes into contact with on the streets and in farmers’ fields.” This would mean not only an increase in water, but in pollution, he said.
In the meantime, he says this year’s high ice levels will help prevent evaporation and keep water temperatures lower, both of which are good for native fish populations. Lower temperatures will also help keep algae blooms at bay, which can be dangerous to people and fish, he said.
Economic impact
This year’s ice cover doesn’t stop at the Great Lakes, extending throughout much of the St. Lawrence River as well.
“The Gulf of St. Lawrence is almost entirely covered in ice up to one metre thick,” Environment Canada’s MacDonald told CTVNews.ca. “From a fisheries perspective, there is some concern in the lobster industry. Their season starts in May.”
The unusual cold may also have a negative effect on farmers, which could see a later-than-usual growing season depending on how long the soil stays frozen. Dr. Altaf Arain, director of the McMaster Centre for Climate Change, says a shortened season could see lower yields and higher food prices.
“On the other hand, there may be better soil moisture content, and the cold temperatures may kill off some bugs… We’ll have to wait to see if the good effects outweigh the bad.”
He said cities will surely face big costs this year related to the extreme winter weather, such as extensive road repairs caused by freezing and thawing of pavement. Further, municipalities and homeowners will likely have to pay more for insurance when they renew their policies this year, he said. Some insurers have already started to raise premiums to cover the cost of weather-related property damage, of which more than $3 billion was claimed in Canada last year, according to the Insurance Bureau of Canada.
“This translates to a very high operational cost in the city, said Arain. “The money has to come from somewhere.”
Escape route
For those who find all this extreme-cold-talk depressing, one might decide to follow the lead of Environment Canada’s Senior Climatologist Dave Phillips. Knowing better than most what kind of weather is yet to come, Phillips left the cold behind.
“Given the weather prospects for March, I’ve decided to disappear; get out of town, get out of country,” says the outgoing message on his office voicemail.
“With all that winter weather rage out there, I thought it would be best to come back in a different season.”
