GOP presidential nominations: And then there were 14…

Former U.S. president Donald Trump speaks at the New Hampshire Federation of Republican Women Lilac Luncheon, Tuesday, June 27, 2023, in Concord, N.H. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

The U.S. Republican Party presidential nominating field has now swelled to 14 candidates.

Others, such as current U.S. Senator Rick Scott of Florida and Governor Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, are still mulling entry into the already-crowded race.  

Fluidity and expansion, at least for now, are the hallmarks of this nascent nominating contest. However, like newly developed characters in a Hollywood script, many of the candidates are still carving out niche lanes and experimenting with formulas of both style and substance they hope will yield a political blockbuster.

Former New Jersey governor and one-time Donald Trump supporter Chris Christie entered the race with tremendous aplomb. Attacking Trump at every turn, he is making a name for himself as the anti-Trump candidate.

He hopes to bring the frontrunner down in much the same way he did Florida Senator Marco Rubio on the debate stage during the 2016 GOP nominating contest.

The brash pol is moving the needle, albeit incrementally, as the latest NBC poll shows him sitting at 5 per cent. Although he still trails far behind the frontrunners, he has moved ahead of former Trump Administration UN ambassador Nikki Haley.

As Christie tries out the role of antagonist in this unfolding drama, the part of happy warrior is being played with glee by South Carolina Senator Tim Scott.

Scott entered the race with more campaign cash than any other candidate aside from Trump and Ron DeSantis. He is well-regarded by an overwhelming majority of the GOP electorate and is widely seen as an alternative to a Trump or DeSantis candidacy.

His willingness to shield the GOP from the racial bromides from Democrats endear him to the party faithful and many see him as an eventual running mate for the nominee. Sitting in the middle of the pack, Scott serves as the eternal optimist of the field, preaching blue skies to potential early voters being fed a steady diet of dark and vitriolic rhetoric espoused by the two leading candidates in the race.

Many of the 14 (so far) have no path to victory and are simply filling space. Like extras in a movie, they are seen but not heard. In fact, most, if not all, of them are likely to be gone before the first votes are even cast.

Such candidates that occupy this lane include former congressman Will Hurd; media personality Larry Elder; Michigan businessman Perry Johnson; and Texas pastor Ryan Binkley. It is highly unlikely any of these candidates make the debate stage in August and until they exit the stage, are candidates in name only. 

Of course, no presidential race would be complete without the sloganeering and the single-issue candidates.

The late Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 tax plan was the identifying slogan of the 2012 Republican nominating contest. That popular slogan briefly catapulted him to frontrunner status.

The current crop has yet to produce catchy slogans but it is still very early. Candidates undoubtedly are developing and testing slogans, likely to be unveiled during the first debate. Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who launched his candidacy in late February, certainly fits the bill.

As a dark horse candidate, he entered the race with anemic poll numbers and virtually no name recognition. Yet, as of late he has been receiving tremendous media attention and it is beginning to reflect in his latest polling numbers.  

Already outpacing some of the bigger names in the race, this relative unknown could be the one to make the most of his time on the debate stage. 

But if Ramaswamy is the potential sloganeering candidate, fellow dark horse Doug Burgum could be the hands-on single-issue candidate of the GOP field. The former software executive and current North Dakota governor is running on a mix of small-town sensibilities combined with keen business acumen. The deep-red state he currently leads is experiencing unprecedented expansion under his watch and Governor Burgum could make a growing economy the driving issue of his campaign.

This would certainly separate him from the top two candidates pacing the field. Trump's candidacy is largely based on settling old scores and DeSantis' incessant culture wars and preternatural fixation with wokeism all seem to ignore the priorities of voters deeply concerned with rising inflation and economic uncertainty. 

Finally, there are the X-factor candidates; individuals that do not fit into any specific lane or box as neatly as others. Not to be confused with space fillers  (i.e. long shots) or the expired candidates who might have found success in previous cycles and now their window of opportunity has closed (i.e. Nikki Haley 2016).

The X factors cannot be grouped with the no-hopers, candidates with no chance of securing the nomination even if the field dwindled to a tiny few. Unfortunately for him, former vice-president Mike Pence has been cast in this thankless role.
X-factors generate intrigue and enthral the voting electorate. Potential breakout stars that elevate their status to new heights.

Mayor Pete Buttigieg was such a candidate during the 2020 election cycle.

Until his most recent Uyghurs gaffe, Francis Suarez appeared primed for such a role.

The 45-year-old mayor of Miami whose entry into the nominating contest confounds even the most astute political observer. The only Hispanic candidate in the race, he certainly has several lanes he can occupy but it is unclear what direction his burgeoning candidacy will take as he attempts to stake his claim to the nomination amid a heavily populated field. 

The cast of characters in this growing drama is set (for now). With the exception of a small few, many are still determining their lane, their exact role, and the very reason for existence in this unfolding ensemble. Though the final storyline has yet to be written, it is becoming increasingly clear some are already being set up for a spectacular fall (DeSantis) while others will exit with nary a murmur or whimper (Haley).

Still, no matter how it all ends or who comes out on top, it is Trump that remains the headliner.