Forget sabotage or missile attacks – a combination of bad weather, pilot error and “something very sudden” likely contributed to the loss of an AirAsia jetliner over the Java Sea, aviation experts say.
Karl Moore of McGill University says the loss of AirAsia Flight 8501 early Sunday is “a bit perplexing,” but the event is not linked to the loss of two Malaysian Airlines planes in separate incidents earlier this year. He says it’s far more likely that extreme weather contributed to the disaster.
“It’s quite different from the other two Malaysian planes that disappeared,” Moore told CTV’s Canada AM on Monday. He said it’s still early in the AirAsia investigation, but he predicts the aircraft’s black box flight recorder will eventually reveal the full cause of the plane disaster – once it’s recovered. “It’s probably some kind of weather-related incident,” he said.
Aviation expert John Cox also believes it won’t be long before investigators find the plane wreckage and black box.
“I do believe that it’s in the water and I do believe we’ll find it, and I believe we’ll find it in short order,” Cox told CTV News Channel on Monday.
Lost contact
AirAsia Flight 8501 disappeared from radar with 162 passengers and crew onboard Sunday, during a flight from Indonesia to Singapore. The aircraft’s pilot last made contact over the Java Sea, when he requested permission to fly higher due to bad weather. That request was denied, and the flight was never heard from again.
Cox says the pilot made a routine request, and he’s not surprised that no further contact was made before the likely crash of the aircraft. Pilots are trained to prioritize flying the aircraft over contacting air traffic control, he said.
“Whatever occurred to this flight occurred quickly, and the pilots were occupied doing things other than talking to air traffic control,” said Cox, a former airline captain and current CEO of Safety Operating Systems.
But Moore says it’s unusual that the pilot did not issue a radio or electronic distress call before the aircraft went down, especially because there would have been ample time to call for help in a disaster.
"It seems like something very sudden happened," Moore said.
Investigators are now searching for wreckage near the AirAsia flight’s last known co-ordinates. They suspect the aircraft sits at the bottom of the Java Sea.
Extreme weather
Moore and Cox both said bad weather alone is not enough to bring down an airplane. There are more than 100,000 safe flights a day worldwide, and planes regularly fly through bad weather without incident.
“This is the safest way to travel, and this is a highly unusual incident,” Moore said.
Cox echoed those sentiments in describing air travel as the “safest form of public transportation” in human history.
“We fly in all weather, routinely, all over the world,” Cox said. He says he’s spoken to other pilots who were flying over the Java Sea at about the same time as Flight 8501, and those pilots say conditions were typical of this time of year.
“Yes it’s monsoon season, yes there are lots of thunderstorms, but we fly here every day,” they have told Cox.
Extreme weather and pilot error have combined to cause plane crashes in the past. On June 1, 2009, Air France Flight 447 crashed into the Atlantic Ocean with 288 passengers and crew onboard. The recovered flight recorder led investigators to conclude that ice buildup on the aircraft’s instruments and improper piloting led to the plane crash.
Moore says icing may have played a factor in the AirAsia accident as well.
Air France Flight 447 was cruising at about 11.5 kilometres above sea level when the pilot accidentally stalled the aircraft and it went down, according to the black box. The plane took about 3 minutes and 30 seconds to hit the water. No distress call was received during that time.
The AirAsia flight was at about 9.8 kilometres above sea level when the pilot last made contact, which suggests there would have been a window of at least a few minutes before it hit the water.
Another Malaysian air disaster
The AirAsia incident comes at the tail end of a year that saw two Malaysia Airlines disasters on separate occasions. Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down in a missile attack over Ukraine last July. Earlier in the year, Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 disappeared from radar over the Indian Ocean en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.
The Flight 17 wreckage was mostly recovered from rebel-held eastern Ukraine, and the passengers’ remains were also recovered.
However, the fate of Flight 370 remains uncertain.
AirAsia’s headquarters is situated in Malaysia, making this disaster the third to befall a Malaysia-based airline in 2014.
But Moore and Cox see no connection between the three incidents.
Moore called the loss of Flight 370 “one of the great mysteries of aviation history.”
Cox said Flight 17 was shot down under unique circumstances, and he sees no similarities between the disappearance of Flight 370 and the current situation with Flight 8501.
“I don’t find any common links at all,” he said.
Indonesian investigators appear to be zeroing in on the location of the downed AirAsia flight. Search and rescue teams have located two oil slicks and bits of debris in the water, but they have not yet connected those signs to Flight 8501.
