'People will fight for whatever's left': Ukraine conflict could lead to global wheat shortages

Ukraine recaptures Russian-controlled village Military analyst Christian Leuprecht explains how Ukrainian forces are preventing Russia from capturing the entire coastline.

Russia and Ukraine are among the world’s top wheat exporters. With one ravaged by war and the other shackled by sanctions, there are fears the conflict will have a large impact on global food supply.

“People will fight for whatever’s left,” Dalhousie University food security expert Sylvain Charlebois told CTV News. “In some parts of the world, you’re likely going to see some civil unrest.”

Shortages are expected across the Middle East, North Africa and Asia in countries that depend on imports. Lebanon’s economy minister for example says they have enough wheat for a month-and-a-half.

To address the issue, G7 agriculture ministers met today in Germany, where they were updated by Ukrainian officials.

“We were shocked to learn that agricultural infrastructure has been targeted,” Canada's Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food Marie-Claude Bibeau said.

That includes infrastructure to harvest, store and ship wheat. To protect their supply of vital staples, Ukraine this week banned many agricultural exports, wheat included.

At the emergency G7 meeting there were promises to get wheat to countries that need it, but few specifics. Manitoba farmer Curtis McRae says his industry will do its best to answer the call.

“My whole career, we’ve basically been trying to feed the world,” he told CTV News. “So, the trick is, just grow lots of whatever we grow and hopefully that can help sustain the world.”

The shortage is meanwhile driving up wheat prices, exacerbating pandemic-related inflation and making food basics like bread cost even more.

“Right now, I don’t see how the rest of the world can cover the losses,” Charlebois from Dalhousie University said.

With files from the Associated Press