Lindsey Graham’s death will shake the Senate, and the November election. Here’s what comes next

U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., gestures as he speaks to the media in Kyiv, Ukraine, March 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda, File)

The sudden death of influential Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham will have implications for legislative business in the Senate – where Republicans slim margin is already under stress with the absence of Sen. Mitch McConnell – and the November election. Here’s what we know about what comes next.

How will Graham’s seat get filled?

Under state law, South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster can appoint a temporary replacement to fill Graham’s now-vacant seat.

But because Graham was up for reelection this year, his death will kick off a sprint primary election to replace him on the November ballot.

Officials have yet to announce how Graham will be replaced, but state law appears to call for a special primary election on August 11 – with a possible runoff on August 25 – to choose a new nominee.

Under that timeline, candidate filing would run from July 21 to July 28.

The winner of the primary would face the Democratic nominee, pediatrician Annie Andrews, in November.

In a statement Sunday, Andrews called Graham “a man of great faith who proudly served our nation as a JAG officer and Air Force colonel.”

“I hope that South Carolinians will join me in setting partisanship aside and offering gratitude to Senator Lindsey Graham for his service to the great state of South Carolina,” she said.

Who might replace Graham?

It is too early to say with any precision who might replace Graham. But some early names began to emerge Sunday.

Rep. Nancy Mace, who finished in fifth place in the recent South Carolina gubernatorial primary, told CNN she was “strongly considering” a bid for the seat.

A source familiar with the matter told CNN that Pamela Evette, South Carolina’s lieutenant governor, was fielding calls about getting into the race.

Evette ran for governor this year and had President Donald Trump’s endorsement, but she lost in a runoff after Trump also endorsed her opponent.

Trump said Sunday he had someone in mind for who he’d like to see serve out Graham’s term.

“I have somebody that I think would be great, but I don’t want to say it now because it just, you know, it’s too soon with Lindsey,” Trump said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

South Carolina Rep. Joe Wilson posted on social media Sunday that he had spoken with the president and implied he was not interested in the interim appointment.

“I was grateful to speak with President Trump today reminiscing about our mutual friend, Senator Lindsey Graham,” Wilson said.

“I assured him my goal is to remain in the House to keep his two-vote majority for the American people!!!”

Rep. Ralph Norman, a prominent member of the House Freedom Caucus, who at one time was widely considered to be contemplating a challenge to Graham in the GOP primary, told CNN that he has not decided if he is interested in potentially vying to replace him now.

Asked about his interest in potentially seeking the seat, he told CNN in a phone call Sunday morning “I don’t know.”

“I am like everybody, it’s a shock,” he said.

Norman, who ran for governor in the primary last month, placed third and did not advance to the runoff in that race. While Norman is a fierce defender of Trump, his calls for fiscal restraint have sometimes put him at odds with GOP leaders and the White House.

Norman said the Senate wasn’t necessarily on his radar, but “in the Senate you can do a lot of good things.”

“The only thing I am weighing right now is that he died. It’s just sad,” Norman said.

What does this mean for the balance of power in the Senate?

Graham’s death shouldn’t have a short-term impact on the overall balance of power in the Senate.

McMaster is a Republican, so his appointment should restore the 53-47 GOP advantage in the chamber.

And there will likely be pressure for McMaster to make an appointment quickly, as the Republican caucus had already been operating short one member in recent weeks due to the hospitalization of McConnell.

What legislative issues might this affect?

While Graham’s death might not have an overall impact on the control of the Senate, he was key player on major issues in the chamber.

The Senate budget committee, which Graham chaired, was in the early phases of working through a complicated budget reconciliation process to try to muscle through parts of Trump’s voter ID bill.

GOP lawmakers had hoped to work quickly to satisfy the president’s demands, which have caused major roadblocks to their agenda on Capitol Hill. Frustrated that the SAVE America Act does not have the votes to clear the Senate’s 60-vote threshold, Trump has pushed lawmakers to eliminate the filibuster and refused to sign other, bi-partisan housing legislation in protest. (That became law anyway.)

Trump noted Graham’s support of the SAVE Act in an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union” Sunday.

“He was coming aboard, I think, for the filibuster, terminating the filibuster. But before we did that, he was going to he was a strong advocate for Save America,” Trump said, adding that the two had talked about the legislation just hours before Graham’s death.

Trump also noted that Graham had supported him in other contexts – including the confirmation fight for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

The Senate is also set to consider a request from the White House for additional defense funding amid the Iran war. Graham would’ve been an outspoken advocate for the measure, which faces a difficult path in Congress as it could require a bipartisan vote to pass under Senate rules.

Further Pentagon funding faces another wrinkle due to the weeks-long absence of McConnell, the chairman of the Senate Defense Appropriations subcommittee.

Just days before his death, Graham celebrated a major victory for his bipartisan push to impose crippling tariffs on countries that import Russian oil and energy sources.

Democratic Sen. Chris Coons, who attended the recent NATO summit and met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with Graham, said the late senator had been “jubilant” after receiving Trump’s blessing to move ahead with the sanctions package.

In the wake of Graham’s death, some senators aligned with him on foreign policy are urging Senate leadership to quickly move the sanctions bill that he and Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal have been pushing for more than a year.

“There can be no more fitting memorial to Lindsey, his legacy or the causes he fought for than to pass this legislation and realize his long-held dream of an independent and secure Ukraine,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said on Sunday.

Graham also would have been a key defender of Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, who is scheduled to appear before the Senate Judiciary Committee this week as Trump hopes to confirm him to lead the Justice Department in a permanent capacity.

This story has been updated with additional reporting.