Manitoba forecast: More turbulent weather looms

Katherine Dow has your current conditions and updated weather forecast for July 16, 2026.

The rain continues to settle in over southern Manitoba on Thursday before another upswing into the weekend.

The low pressure system that pushed in from Saskatchewan overnight is expected to linger over much of the area through the day, spreading more precipitation. There’s also an added risk of thunderstorms into the afternoon.

Temperatures remain slightly below seasonal throughout the south, with highs in the mid-twenties alongside southeasterly winds at 20 km/h.

To the north, a lone heat warning continues in the Lynn Lake area as the humidity continues for at least one more day. Air quality warnings are also in effect in the northwest and have spread further into the east to the Thompson area on Thursday, as wildfire smoke is expected to linger.

Temperatures will be particularly hot in the northwest in the low thirties – not good news for wildfire starts.

Still, there’s a low chance of rain in that area throughout Thursday. In fact, some precipitation has already fallen around The Pas and Flin Flon – good news for the wildfire fight. Similarly, rain is expected to continue overnight.

The southwest, meanwhile, could be in for a turbulent evening. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) warns a low in North Dakota is expected to move east supplying the area with energy and wrap moisture.

ECCC forecasts that rain will be the primary threat associated with this system, but marginally severe hail and wind gusts can’t be ruled out, either. This is not good news for southwest communities which are still contending with the flash flooding from the last bout of rain.

Those storms are expected to lose some gusto when they track into Winnipeg and the Red River Valley overnight Thursday into Friday.

Temperatures won’t budge much either, with lows in the upper teens alongside prevailing southeasterly winds.

Friday marks another turnaround in southern Manitoba.

Winnipeg and much of the Red River Valley can expect mostly cloudy skies in the morning, which will quickly clear, leaving behind plenty of sunshine and warmer highs. For Winnipeg and Brandon, that’s 27 C with similar values expected in Parkland and Interlake communities.