Windsor economy to be hardest hit by U.S. tariffs: Ontario’s financial watchdog

A new report from Ontario’s financial watchdog emphasizes Windsor’s vulnerability against U.S. tariffs.

The Financial Accountability Officer of Ontario released a further analysis of how the U.S. trade action and Canada’s response could impact the provincial economy.

In analyzing the differences between a scenario with tariffs and without tariffs between the two nations, the report found trade action would lead to 68,100 fewer jobs in Ontario this year.

“This report analyzes the impact of a tariff scenario based on trade actions announced by the US and Canada as of April 17, 2025. This includes US tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles and automobile parts, and Canadian retaliatory tariffs,” the report states.

Locally, the FAO stated Southwestern Ontario would bear the brunt of the impact.

Windsor was determined to be the most impacted, with employment expected to drop by 1.6% in 2026.

Justin Falconer, the CEO of Workforce WindsorEssex, estimates the decrease would translate to about 3,900 fewer jobs.

“We are highly dependent on our ability to sell into the U.S. 96% of all of our exports that leave Windsor-Essex go into the U.S., and so, you know, we’re going to be impacted significantly,” Falconer told CTV News.

The report determined Ontario could be headed toward a “modest recession” this year.

Falconer noted businesses remain “seriously” concerned, and are trying to “pivot” in an effort to avoid further strain.

After Windsor, the FAO states Guelph, Brantford, and Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo would see the most significant employment changes.

According to the latest data from Statistics Canada, Windsor has a 9.3% unemployment rate.

“Well, some employers are hoping this is just like posturing, you know, some were hoping that the wrap-up of this federal election meant that we could finally get to working out a new trade deal,” Falconer said.

Recently elected Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to visit U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington within the next week.

In the coming months and years, Falconer believes the region will adapt to put more emphasis on trading in European and Asian markets. However, in the short term, as detailed in the FAO’s report, the region could face economic pain.

“Losing your biggest customer on the doorstep of Windsor’s, border, this is a structural change. It’s going to be hard to replace what the U.S. buys from Windsor, Essex, especially overnight,” Falconer said.