Trump tariff threat: Years of job gains at risk in Windsor-Essex

The impact of president-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threat could roll back years of job gains in Windsor and its surrounding bedroom communities according to the head of Workforce Windsor-Essex.

On Tuesday, Premier Doug Ford announced his government has assessed the impact of 25 per cent across-the-board tariffs at 500,000 jobs in Ontario.

“It will inflict a lot of damage and unnecessary harm for two countries that are so close in all of our work,” said Justin Falconer, CEO of Workforce Windsor-Essex, which tracks labour market data in the region.

Falconer points to Statistics Canada data released Friday, which show the Windsor-Sarnia corridor seeing 15.4 per cent of its labour force directly depend on U.S. exports.

The Windsor Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), which includes LaSalle, Tecumseh, and Lakeshore, sees nearly 1 in 5 workers tied to the manufacturing sector.

Falconer said that puts 30,000 workers at risk should Trump follow-through with his tariff threat and has the potential to roll back years of job gains.

“If we lost 30,000 jobs overnight, and I’m not saying we would, that would bring us back to sort of 2022 levels of employment in Windsor, which would basically be sort of the pre-NextStar sort of feeling that people had had around here,” said Falconer.

The workforce in Windsor-Essex stands at roughly 196,000 people.

While efforts continue at both provincial and federal levels of government to appease Trump and avert the costly tariffs, the incoming president appears set on enacting the measure.

Falconer isn’t convinced there’s much else that can be done outside of leaders recommitting to a ‘Team Canada’ approach to tackle the issue.

“Presumably, no amount of pre-ordering or pre-negotiating prices or anything is going to help,” said Falconer. “They’re just simply going to slap a tariff tax on it and charge businesses and consumers more money to purchase from our country. So, it’s going to be pretty devastating.”

Premier’s warning

Ford announced the 500,000-job loss figure at a news conference in Toronto Tuesday, without detailing how his government arrived at that number.

“It’s not going to be good; I will tell you that right now,” Ford said as he announced another pillar of his so-called ‘Fortress Am-Can’ plan to stave off the tariff threat.

“It all depends on the amount of tariffs, what sectors they’re affecting. But I was getting numbers yesterday from the ministries: It could cost 500,000 jobs,” Ford said. “This is serious. It’s unprecedented. Let’s hope it doesn’t cost 500,000 jobs. But we need the ability to go in there and support the sectors and the people to make sure we protect Ontario and return Canadian jobs as well right across our country.”

Ford hinted an election would be needed to unleash the billions of dollars in economic aid needed to respond to the tariffs.

The opposition parties have pushed back on that idea, arguing the premier should put partisanship aside and work with the legislature.

The next Ontario election is set for June 2026, but the premier has not committed to an election for that date.