Ontario not on track to balance budget, watchdog says, despite Ford government saying it will

Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy delivers the Ontario budget as Premier Doug Ford looks on at the Queen's Park Legislature in Toronto, on Thursday, May 15, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young

TORONTO — Ontario’s financial watchdog is projecting that the government won’t balance the budget by 2027-28, though the finance minister’s office insists it will.

The financial accountability officer says in a report today that Ontario likely won’t come to balance until at least 2030.

Jeffrey Novak says real GDP growth in the province is projected to slow to 0.9 per cent this year and one per cent next year, as U.S. tariffs “reduce demand for Ontario’s exports, and businesses cut back on investment and hiring.”

Based on that economic outlook and the government’s current policies and plans, Novak projects that the outlook to 2029-30 still shows a deficit of $9 billion.

Novak says the government’s projection of balancing in 2027-28 is based on stronger tax revenue gains and “significantly lower” program spending growth than the FAO forecasts.

A spokesperson for Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy says the province remains on a “clear path” to balance and says the FAO’s reports do not encompass the entirety of Ontario’s finances.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2025.

Allison Jones, The Canadian Press