‘We are bullish’: Toronto tourism officials eyeing summer rebound despite drop in U.S. visitors

Emily Miller stops during her lunch break to take a selfie in front of giant letters spelling out Toronto, as workers set up for Pan Am Games public events in Nathan Phillips Square in central Toronto, Wednesday, July 8, 2015. (AP / Rebecca Blackwell)

With just weeks to go until Toronto heats up with annual summer festivals and concerts, operators of tourist attractions say they’re already feeling “bullish” despite early signs that American visitors may be hesitating to make a trip up north.

“Overall, we are bullish on Toronto and on the tourism opportunity ahead of us right now,” Destination Toronto President and CEO Andrew Weir said. “Certainly, in the first quarter this year, we saw small decline in visitation. There was a lot of noise, a lot of uncertainty about trade, around borders, and it just caused a lot of people to pause.”

Despite the optimism, a new survey from the Tourism Industry Association of Ontario (TIAO) shows nearly one-third of Ontario businesses are already seeing fewer bookings from Americans—a crucial market that accounted for nearly 79 per cent of all international visits to Canada last year.

The decline comes following a surge of growing patriotism with popular slogans like “Buy Canadian” and “Elbows Up” in addition to a souring relationship with the U.S. as President Donald Trump continues to suggest that Canada should become “the 51st state.”

American uncertainty, creating global opportunity

In March, U.S. resident trips to Canada declined by about 6.6 per cent from the same time period in 2024, marking the first year-over-year decline since 2021, according to Statistics Canada.

Arrivals by automobile were down 8.7 per cent in the month.

On the other end, Canadians too have been hesitating travelling down south as recent data shows travelers took 35 per cent fewer trips in April this year.

Still, Weir remains confident that the city can capitalize on shifting travel trends.

“At a time when demand for travel to the U.S. is down significantly… those travelers are going to look for alternate destinations, and what an opportunity that is for Canada and for Toronto specifically,” he said. “It is a real opportunity for Toronto.”

In an email to CTV News Toronto, a spokesperson for the CN Tower wrote said that it is “hopeful travellers from around the world will take this opportunity to visit some of Canada’s world class destinations, which offer unforgettable experiences as well as great value.”

Tourism is climbing — but not like 2019

Visitor numbers in Toronto have continued to recover from a pandemic low, with 400,000 more tourists arriving last year than in 2023, according to Destination Toronto. Still, the city remains about 600,000 visitors short of 2019 levels.

Meanwhile, when it comes to spending by U.S travelers, Destination Toronto says numbers increased 10 per cent in 2024, though it still remains five per cent below pre-pandemic levels. That rebound, Weir says, has been helped in part by a stark increase in large meetings and conventions, which brought in nearly $619 million to the local economy last year.

“We think about summer travel as largely being leisure oriented… but there are a number of very large conventions that are coming to Toronto this year,” Weir said. “It contributes to that diversification of the visitor mix, and that’s so important as we plan for the future.”

Summer hotel bookings already up

Even though there was an early year slump, Weir emphasizes that people are already looking ahead to summertime in the GTA, noting hotel bookings are tracking ahead of years past.

“As we look to the summer months, we see hotel advance bookings are pacing ahead of last year for the summer,” Weir said. “That’s because after a period of slower travel demand, people rebound by traveling enthusiastically. We saw it after the pandemic.”

Weir further explains that the poor first quarter “does not necessarily constitute the beginning of a longer trend.” Instead, he suggests the dip was more of a temporary hesitation tied to the broader uncertainty happening across the world.

“What we’re also doing is increasing our investment in some key overseas markets, particularly the UK, Germany and Mexico,” he said. “In the current climate, some of which was unexpected… the opportunity is even greater because those travelers are looking away from the U.S. and looking for alternatives.”

‘We still see a tremendous opportunity’

Despite the ongoing political tensions, Destination Toronto says they haven’t scaled back any effort to market in the U.S., noting it’s still a “tremendous opportunity.”

“The U.S. continues to be a very strategic and important market for us, and we’ve not reduced the effort in that market at all,” said Weir. “We still see a tremendous opportunity there.”

For the city, the summer calendar already looks jam packed with annual high-profile events, such as Pride Toronto, the Caribbean Carnival, Salsa in Toronto, and an expected return of Drake’s star studded OVO Fest.

“If American visitation were to decline, we’d become more dependent on domestic and international,” Weir added. “But that diversification is exactly what positions Toronto for long-term resilience.”

With files from The Canadian Press, CTV’s Tyler Fleming and Phil Tsekouras…