‘Signs of recovery’: Toronto-area home prices drop more than 5 per cent since last June

Real estate signage is shown in Oakville, Ont., west of Toronto on Saturday, May 11, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Richard Buchan

TORONTO — Real estate watchers in the Greater Toronto Area are hoping a recovery may be underway as figures for June showed signs that activity could be stabilizing after a sluggish first half of 2025.

Home sales in the region ticked 2.4 per cent lower in June compared with a year earlier, as 6,243 properties changed hands, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board said Friday.

Meanwhile, sales were up 8.1 per cent from May on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, as the housing market “continued to show signs of recovery,” the board said.

Like other regions, the GTA has seen real estate activity cool down this year as many would-be buyers were spooked by economic uncertainty associated with Canada’s trade war with the United States.

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In May, home sales were down about 13 per cent year-over-year after a 23 per cent annual decline in April.

Economists had been optimistic the market would heat up this year amid lower borrowing costs, but that all changed once U.S. President Donald Trump began imposing tariffs on Canada and other countries.

“January was actually good up until Trump got into office and started talking,” said Vy Ngo, a sales representative with Big City Realty Inc. brokerage in the Toronto area.

“Then the stock market took a big beating. Once the stock market picked backed up end of May for a good solid, let’s say month or three weeks, it was starting to do better. That’s why June numbers are doing better.”

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,319 sales last month, a 3.5 per cent increase from June 2024. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales fell 5.6 per cent to 3,924.

All property types saw fewer overall sales in June compared with a year ago throughout the region.

The largest decline was in the townhouse segment, where four per cent fewer properties sold, followed by detached houses with a 2.9 per cent decrease. There were 2.5 per cent fewer condos sold and a 0.7 per cent drop of semi-detached homes that changed hands.

Despite hope for a turnaround, Ngo said many people are still “very scared to buy because you don’t know what’s going to happen next.” She called it the “worst” of her 12 years as a real estate agent, due to challenges navigating the uncertainties of the tariff situation.

“It’s hard to predict. I’m at the point where I’m like, ‘I really don’t know,’” she said.

“There’s been so many ups and downs ... I can’t predict the future. I really wish I could.”

The average selling price fell 5.4 per cent in June compared with a year earlier to $1,101,691, and the composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 5.5 per cent year-over-year.

A total of 19,839 new properties were listed in the GTA last month, up 7.7 per cent compared with last year. TRREB president Elechia Barry-Sproule said with more listings available, buyers are “taking advantage of increased choice and negotiating discounts off asking prices.”

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“Combined with lower borrowing costs compared to a year ago, home ownership is becoming a more attainable goal for many households in 2025.”

Active listings hit 31,603 last month, up 30.8 per cent from June 2024’s inventory of 24,169 homes.

“A firm trade deal with the United States accompanied by an end to cross-border sabre rattling would go a long way to alleviating a weakened economy and improving consumer confidence,” TRREB chief information officer Jason Mercer said.

“On top of this, two additional interest rate cuts would make monthly mortgage payments more comfortable for average GTA households. This could strengthen the momentum experienced over the last few months and provide some support for selling prices.”

The Bank of Canada has held its key policy rate steady for two straight decisions at 2.75 per cent after seven consecutive cuts. The central bank announces its next rate decision on July 30.

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Sammy Hudes, The Canadian Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 4, 2025.