‘Cause for concern’: New condo sales in the GTHA plummet to the lowest seen since 1991

A crane tower from a new condo construction site is reflected in the window on another condo construction site in downtown Toronto on Thursday, May 25, 2023. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young

More and more homebuyers are steering away from new condos in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, as new data reveals sales for that market declined to the lowest seen in more than 30 years.

In a report published by Urbanation on Wednesday, the number of new condo apartment sales dropped for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, decreasing by 60 per cent from 2024 to a total of 1,599 units. That number of sales is the lowest it has been since 1991, the report notes.

Last year, new condo sales fell 91 per cent below the 10-year average and declined by 95 per cent since 2021. Toward the end of 2025, buyer activity did not improve as only 262 new condos were sold in the last quarter, the lowest quarterly total since 1990.

Dwindling sales appear to be impacting new condo projects, as Urbanation says 28 active projects—totaling 7,243 units—were cancelled. This is more than double the units cancelled in 2024, at 3,469, thwarting the previous high held in 2018, at 3,598.

Eight cancelled condo projects, set to home 2,189 units, switched to purpose-built rentals last year, adding to the 1,434 cancelled condos-turned-rental units in 2024.

“The conversion of some cancelled condo projects to purpose-rental was not enough to help offset a steep decline in condominium starts,” the report reads.

The number of purpose-built rentals grew 24 per cent from 2024 to 2025, jumping by 1,637 units, reflecting a multi-decade high. Meanwhile, Urbanation underscores condo construction starts fell to a multi-decade low last year, falling 63 per cent from 2024 to 2025.

The report notes that, over the last three years, condo starts plunged 88 per cent, with 50,479 condos currently under construction—a 10-year low.

Condo developers launched only 10 new projects in 2025, the report notes, with only one of those buildings brought to the market by the final quarter. Of the 1,425 units launched last year, only 22 per cent were sold, reflecting a 24 per cent decline in sales for new launches in 2024 and a high of 81 per cent for new launches in 2021.

“Sales continued to fall in 2025 despite average selling prices within new launches declining to a five-year low of $1,123 psf—down eight per cent from 2024 and an 18 per cent drop from 2022,” the report reads.

Prices, however, “remained at a significant premium” for new builds compared to resale units, with average selling prices hovering around $856 per square foot in the final quarter.

“As investors moved to the sidelines, new condo sales have pivoted away from pre-construction projects towards newly completed projects,” the report reads, noting how more sales were completed during the occupancy and registration stages.

Pre-construction projects on the other hand represented less than half of sales in 2025—a first considering this market typically made up more than 70 per cent of new condo sales.

By the end of the year, the report notes completed and unsold inventory soared to a record high of 3,897 units, reflecting a 131 per cent increase from 2024. That number is also five times the amount of the inventory seen in 2023.

There was also a considerable number of pre-sold condos that were taken back by developers, according to Urbanation’s research into land registry records. About 10 per cent of pre-sold new condos were taken, reflecting roughly 3,000 units.

“Unsold inventory has been pushed higher as sales have decreased and completions have hit record highs during the past two years,” the report reads.

In 2025, a total of 29,291 condos were constructed, which is 50 per cent higher the 10-year average. The number of completed units is expected to dwindle by 25 per cent in 2026, dropping to 22,066 units. That number will drop by less than half in 2027, and then by 2029, Urbanation says no new condos are expected to be delivered.

“As the condo market enters the fifth year of its largest ever correction, the duration of this downturn should be a significant cause for concern as it relates to future supply,” Urbanation President Shaun Hildebrand said in the report.

With certainty, Hildebrand says there won’t be any new condo completions by the end of the decade. What is uncertain, Hildebrand adds, is how far into the 203s the supply crunch will last.

“If rental construction can’t fill the void, this raises serious questions around the impact on affordability.”