The "Holiday Election” has begun – the election of imperfect choices.
It’s pretty hard to not have an election without hitting a holiday weekend. For Canada’s 42nd federal election we hit three holidays – the long weekend in August, Labour Day and Thanksgiving. What’s significant from a research perspective is that in past elections, holiday weekends have been critical junctures in potential shifts in voter sentiment.
As Canadians break bread gathering with family and friends during an election on a long weekend, they no doubt talk about the state of the nation, what they think of the leaders and who might be the best comparative choice. Note the term “best comparative choice,” not perfect choice.
One way to think of things is that leaders do not measure up against perfection but against the other leaders on the political menu. The reality is that Canadians are always faced with a set of imperfect choices.
In this election the imperfect choices range from Stephen Harper, who has governed through good times and recession, and as part of governing has likely done one thing or another to annoy some voters, through to Thomas Mulcair, who has tried to contrast himself from Harper but who leads a party that has never been in power federally (provincially – for sure – but not federally), through to Justin Trudeau, who leads a party (the Liberals) Canadians believe has more experience governing than the NDP, but who for some is a question mark waiting for more definition.
In our tracking, the number that strikes me most is that 40 per cent of Canadians would only consider voting for one party. That suggests four in 10 Canadians are set in their views – perhaps unshakeably – but that the majority of Canadians, even if they have a vote preference today would consider voting for another party other than their current preference.
There’s a tendency, almost a compulsion, to look at a survey and try to project what will happen, but one should never discount how fluid and volatile public opinion can be.
The key takeaway is to be prepared for opinion to shift with the ebb and flow of the campaign – that’s what makes this journey interesting. My focus will be the direction of the trend, looking to understand who has the momentum or advantage. These post-holiday weekends will be the key junctures that shape the direction of election.
