Number of Ottawa households to grow by 257,000 over next 25 years

The Ottawa sign in the ByWard Market on Jan. 2. (Josh Pringle/CTV News Ottawa)

The City of Ottawa is projecting a “sustained period of high housing demand” as the population grows to 1.68 million over the next 25 years, requiring a broad range of housing options and supporting intensification, according to city staff.

The Official Plan update – growth projections show Ottawa’s population will grow by 530,000 residents between 2024 and 2051, with an average annual growth of roughly 19,600 people per year.

Staff say the number of households in Ottawa will increase from just over 433,000 in 2024 to nearly 700,000 households by 2051.

“This represents a sustained period of high housing demand, driven by population growth, aging-related household changes, and the release of pent-up demand among younger adults who delayed forming households in recent years due to affordability pressures,” staff said in a report for a joint meeting of the planning and housing committee and agriculture and rural affairs committee on Feb. 18.

“The forecasts indicate a continued shift in the type of housing needed to accommodate future growth. While single-detached housing will remain part of Ottawa’s housing mix, a growing share of new households is expected to be accommodated through apartments, row housing, duplexes, and additional residential units.”

The report also shows total employment in Ottawa will increase by approximately 325,00 jobs between 2024 and 2051 to 994,000. Staff say Ottawa will maintain its role as a “major regional employment hub, supported by strong labour force participation.

“Overall, the forecasts demonstrate that Ottawa is entering a prolonged period of sustained growth,” staff said. “Accommodating this growth will require coordinated planning for housing, infrastructure, transportation, employment lands, and community services.”

The forecasts for population, households and employment growth by 2051 are intended to support Ottawa’s future Official Plan. Municipalities received population forecasts from Ontario’s Ministry of Finance, and city staff worked with the Hemson on housing and employment projections.

Coun. Jeff Leiper, the chair of the planning and hosing committee, said the growth forecast is very important for the city.

“Those numbers are the starting point for crafting our Official Plan, including what if any land needs to be added to the city’s developable area and what kind of intensification will be needed to accommodate those households,” Leiper said in his newsletter.

“When the Official Plan is crafted, that drives our master plans such as for transportation, water and wastewater infrastructure, solid waste, greenspace parks and recreation and more. Those master plans become the capital spending plans that drive how much development charges will be.”

Here is a look at the 25-year projections for Ottawa.

Population

Staff say the population forecast shows Ottawa will “remain one of Ontario’s fastest-growing large cities” over the next 25 years.

Ottawa’s population is expected to grow from approximately 1.15 million in 2024 to 1.68 million by 2051. The population is forecast to be 1.372 million in 2036 and 1.578 million by 2046.

“Population growth will be driven primarily by migration, particularly international immigration, with natural increase playing a smaller role over time as the population ages,” city staff said.

The report by Hemson shows Ottawa’s population is expected to grow across all major age groups, with growth in working age cohorts 35 to 54 and seniors 75+ to be “especially pronounced.

“Significant growth is anticipated across nearly all cohorts in this range, particularly among adults aged 35 to 54. By 2051, several of these cohorts are projected to exceed 120,000 to 130,000 residents,” the report said.

“The population aged 90+ is projected to nearly double by 2051, reflecting longer life expectancy and the aging of existing residents.”

Housing

While the number of households will increase over the next 25 years, the report notes, “traditional new forms of apartments will play an “increasingly important role” in Ottawa’s housing market.

The report by Hemson says the total number of households will increase from 433,800 households in 2024 to 691,550 by 2051.

“This represents a sustained period of high housing demand, driven by population growth, aging-related household changes, and the release of pent-up demand among younger adults who delayed forming households in recent years due to affordability pressures,” staff said.

Hemson’s report suggests households will be “increasingly characterized by smaller households, later transitions through the housing spectrum, and a heavier reliance on apartments, row houses and other compact forms,” over the next 25 years.

The report notes the forecast growth in housing is “increasingly concentrated in apartrments, row housing and duplexes.”

“This pattern is consistent with strong household formation among younger adults entering the housing market later in life, as well as a growing number of one- and two-person households,” Hemson said.

“Apartments, in particular, capture much of the growth associated with singles, couples without children, recent migrants, and older adults downsizing from larger homes. The steady rise in apartment households reflects both affordability considerations and preferences for lower-maintenance, amenity-rich, and transit-accessible living environments.”

Employment

Ottawa’s employment is forecast to increase by 325,000 jobs over the next 25 years to 994,600, with the largest growth in health care, education, high-tech sectors and entertainment and tourism.

The report notes while Ottawa saw a decline in employment between 2018 and 2021, in part due to the COVID_19 pandemic, employment rebounded sharply by 2024. Hemson employment growth is forecast to continue at a “moderate and gradually declining pace,” in part due to an aging population.

“After the current period of relatively slow growth, annual growth rates increase to approximately 2.0 per cent between 2026 and 2031 and gradually decrease to around 1.2 per cent by 2051, reflecting a maturing economy, slower population growth, and longer-term demographic trends such as population aging,” the report said.

The number of people working in offices in the urban area is expected to increase from 293,900 in 2026 to 396,8000 by 2051, while the number of people working at home is expected to go from 49,900 in 2026 to 77,600 by 2051.

Employment in services like retail, cultural, entertainment, institutional and tourism-related activities is expected to increase from 279,000 to 436,300 people over the next 25 years.

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