A new study prepared for the Alto high-speed rail project suggests the proposed line connecting Toronto to Ottawa, Montreal, and Quebec City could provide a significant boost to tourism in the capital. The study, prepared by infrastructure consulting firm CPCS, analyzed tourism patterns in the major cities along the suggested Alto corridor and looked at how high-speed rail impacted tourism in other countries where it has been established. The study suggests the Ottawa-Gatineau area could see a significant increase in overnight and same-day tourists should the line be completed. “If Alto were operational today, the number of tourists, their length of stay, and daily spending would be expected to change … leading to changes in spending, and therefore, contribution to GDP and jobs,” the report says. According to the study, Ottawa-Gatineau could see an increase in overnight tourists of between 1 and 8 per cent. Same-day tourism could increase by 2 to 9 per cent. The area could see between $21 million and $560 million in additional spending, or around 16 per cent of a projected $3.6 billion increase in spending along the entire corridor at the highest end of projections. The authors of the study stress that the projected figures are based on international case studies and are meant to be illustrative, drawing on European evidence but using more conservative assumptions for Canada’s less developed intercity rail market. The study says Alto is most likely to increase arrivals where it meaningfully changes travel time and convenience (enough to change behaviour), and where destinations already have a strong visitation pull. If driving remains cheaper and easier, the effect of Alto on tourism could be more modest, the authors say. The authors of the study note, however, that the case studies are not perfectly comparable to the Canadian context. The study looked at how tourism was affected by high-speed rail in the European Union, in particular Italy, Spain, and France, and in Japan, which have higher population densities, more established rail networks, and dense clusters of globally recognized tourist attractions. Targeted policy must accompany rail line The study authors say that Alto’s ability to attract tourists will depend on how municipalities target tourism policies to the high-speed rail connections. Alto vice-president of strategy and development Laurent Therrien told CTV News Ottawa that everywhere high-speed rail is implemented sees an uptick in tourism, but it requires effort to make the most of it. “The extent to which it will deliver those benefits are essentially based on how much coordination is going to happen between the tourism sector and high speed (rail),” he said. “What we mean by coordination is marketing, destination marketing. Offers based on the use of high-speed (rail); coordination between cities, so that tourists get access to multiple locations, multiple cities during their trips; and last mile… making sure that the tourist actually leaves the station and can get to its final destination. These are the type of investments and coordination mechanisms that will make a huge difference in how the tourism sector can really reap the benefits of high-speed rail.” If coordination and marketing is low, the line could shift travel patterns to shorter stays, with Ottawa potentially seeing decreases in length of stays and accompanying business spending. The study suggests that if the region does not make strong efforts to capitalize on opportunities, business spending could possibly decline by up to 1 per cent, as could stay-length. In high-coordination scenarios, however, Ottawa could potentially see increases in business and personal spending of up to 13 per cent, and a 4 per cent increase in the length of stays. “In absolute terms, Toronto and Montreal contribute the most to tourism-related GDP under all scenarios and experience the highest absolute gains. But relative to their baseline, Ottawa-Gatineau and Québec City may see the largest gains under the high-coordination scenario,” the report states. “These large urban centres are expected to see the highest relative increase in visitors (and therefore spending) under higher coordination scenarios, reflecting improved access for a broader share of the Ontario and Quebec population. For example, residents of Toronto—home to nearly half of the population across the Alto corridor—may take advantage of the faster connections to these cities.” According to the Alto website, high-speed rail could attract up to 24 million passengers annually by 2055. The Crown corporation says travel time would be approximately two hours between Toronto and Ottawa and approximately one hour between Ottawa and Montreal. The Alto project would build its first leg between Ottawa and Montreal, with an estimated start date of 2029. The project, which comes with an estimated price tag of $60-90 billion, does face opposition from landowners along the potential corridors, several municipalities, and politicians from all orders of government, including federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who says he would scrap the project if he became prime minister, and Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who would withdraw Quebec from the corridor if the party forms government in Quebec.
