These 28 ridings are ‘toss-ups’ in the Oct. 5 Quebec general election

The leaders of Quebec's five political parties on the campaign trail. (The Canadian Press)

If the polls are on track, the Oct. 5 Quebec general election will result in a much different electoral map than the one in 2022.

The poll analysis site Qc125.com projects the Parti Québécois to form the next government with 62 seats, followed by the Liberals (35), Conservatives (14), Quebec Solidaire (nine) and CAQ (seven).

A party needs 64 seats to form a majority.

• READ MORE: Quebec party platform tracker

The site considers any riding with under 70 per cent certainty to win a “toss-up.”

There are 28 such ridings out of the 127 in the province.

The PQ are ahead in 14, CAQ in six, Liberals and QS in three, and the Conservatives in two.

All but four toss-up ridings were won by the CAQ in 2022, including seats held by 13 cabinet ministers, the CAQ whip François Jacques, president of the National Assembly Nathalie Roy and former Premier François Legault.

The seats held by former ministers of Health (Christian Dubé), Finance (Eric Girard), Transport (Geneviève Guilbault) and French-language (Jean-François Roberge) are among those that the CAQ could lose.

Below are the ridings considered toss-ups. The 2022 winner is stated, followed by the percentage of the popular vote they received. The toss up candidates are followed by the likelihood of them winning, shown in percentage.

All numbers are, as of Friday, Sept. 25.

Beauharnois (PQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ Claude Reid (54.2 per cent)

• PQ Alexandre Daneau is holding a slight lead (52 per cent) over Reid.

Brome-Missisquoi (Lib/PQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ former minister Isabelle Charest (45.1 per cent)

• Liberal Frédéric Beauchemin (59 per cent) has a decent lead over CAQ Manuela Goya (29 per cent) and PQ Patrick Melchior (12 per cent).

Chambly (PQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ former minister Jean-François Roberge (48.5 per cent)

• PQ Julie Guyot (54 per cent) leads the former CAQ cabinet minister (46 per cent)

Chapleau (LIB/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ former minister Mathieu Lévesque (52.3 per cent)

• Liberal Michel Langevin (62 per cent) looks likely to take the seat from Lévesque (31 per cent).

Côte-du-Sud (PQ/CPQ)

2022 - CAQ Mathieu Rivest (47.7 per cent)

• Conservative Frédéric Poulin (57 per cent) leads PQ Valerie Hamel (42 per cent).

Drummong-Bois-Francs (PQ/CPQ)

2022 - CAQ Sébastien Schneeberger (49.8 per cent)

• PQ Charles Page (62 per cent) leads Conservative Myriam Cournoyer (36 per cent).

Granby (PQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ former minister François Bonnardel (58.2 per cent)

• CAQ Claudine Leroux (63 per cent) leads PQ Jean-François Arsenault (37 per cent).

Groulx (PQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ Eric Girard (47.7 per cent)

• PQ Marie-Claude Sarrazin (54 per cent) leads the former finance minister (45 per cent).

Huntingdon (LIB/PQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ Carole Mallette (46.8 per cent)

• Liberal Connor Stacey (52 per cent) leads PQ Frédéric Laplante (27 per cent) and CAQ Stéphane Bisaillon (21 per cent).

Iberville (PQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ Audrey Bogemans (53.1 per cent)

• PQ Camille Pellerin-Forget (59 per cent) leads the CAQ incumbent (41 per cent).

Daniel-Johnson (PQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ former minister André Lamontagne (50.6 per cent)

• CAQ Christine Nadeau (61 per cent) leads PQ Nathalie Boisclair (39 per cent).

L’Assomption (PQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ (Premier) François Legault (57.2 per cent)

• PQ Maxime Laport (61 per cent) looks likely to take the former premier’s riding over CAQ Geneviève Pettersen (39 per cent).

La Prairie (PQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ former minister Christian Dubé (52.7 per cent)

• CAQ Pierre Guillot-Hurtubise (56 per cent) leads PQ Frédéric Côté (44 per cent) in the former health minister’s riding.

Laurier-Dorion (LIB/QS)

2022 - QS Andrès Fontecilla (48.8 per cent)

• Fontecilla (59 per cent) leads Liberal Randy Legault-Rankin (41 per cent).

Laviolette-Saint-Maurice (PQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ Marie-Louise Tardiff (51.7 per cent)

• PQ Élodie Murphy-Gauthier (64 per cent) looks likely to take the seat from CAQ Guy Veilette (34 per cent).

Louis-Hébert

2022 - CAQ former minister Geneviève Guilbault (47.2 per cent)

• PQ Chloé Fauchon (50 per cent) leads CAQ Marc-Antoine Bernier (42 per cent).

Mégantic (PQ/CPQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ François Jacques (46.5 per cent)

• Conservative Jimmy Gagnon (58 per cent) leads PQ Debbie Fennety (26 per cent) and the CAQ incumbent (16 per cent).

Mirabel (PQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ former minister Sylvie D’Amours (50.6 per cent)

• PQ Geneviève Couture (58 per cent) leads CAQ Marjolaine Ferron (42 per cent).

Montarville (PQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ former minister Nathalie Roy (45.9 per cent)

• Roy (56 per cent) leads PQ Jean-François Cloutier (44 per cent).

Nicolet-Bécancour (PQ/CPQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ Donald Martel (47.3 per cent)

• PQ Jérôme Gagnon (45 per cent) leads Conservative Guillaume Langlois (38 per cent) and the CAQ incumbent (17 per cent).

Papineau (LIB/PQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ former minister Mathieu Lacombe (53.6 per cent)

• CAQ Linda Gauthier (51 per cent) leads Liberal Isabelle Sabourin (31 per cent) and PQ Isabelle Millette (17 per cent).

Repentigny (PQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ former minister Pascale Déry (52.7 per cent)

• PQ Nicolas Girard (61 per cent) leads the former CAQ minister (39 per cent).

Richmond (PQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ André Bachand (46.4 per cent)

• CAQ Guillaume Rousseau (61 per cent) is ahead of PQ Bernard Sévigny (28 per cent).

Rosemont (PQ/QS)

2022 - QS Vincent Marissal (37.6 per cent)

• QS Gisèle Pouhe Njall (66 per cent) holds a comfortable lead over PQ Pierre-Luc Brilliant (33 per cent).

Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne (Lib/QS)

*2023 byelection - QS Guillaume Cliche-Rivard (44.5 per cent)

• Cliche-Rivard (54 per cent) leads Liberal Benoit Clermont (46 per cent).

Sherbrooke (PQ/QS)

2022 - QS Christine Labrie (41.9 per cent)

• PQ Gabriel Pallotta (52 per cent) leads QS Stéphanie Vachon (47 per cent).

Trois-Rivières (PQ/CAQ)

2022 - CAQ former minister Jean Boulet (50.8 per cent)

• PQ Jean Pellerin (58 per cent) leads CAQ leader (and outgoing premier) Christine Fréchette (42 per cent).

Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie (PQ/CAQ/CPQ)

2022 - No results. This is a new riding.

• PQ Natalie Bisaillon (63 per cent) leads CAQ Patrick Saindon.