Liberals, PQ neck and neck in Quebec voting intentions: poll

After months of the Parti Québécois dominating the polls, the Quebec Liberals have pulled into a statistical tie in Quebec politics.

Charles Milliard’s Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s Parti Québécois (PQ) are now neck and neck in voting intentions, according to a new Léger-Le Journal-TVA poll published on Wednesday.

The poll shows 30 per cent support for the PLQ and 31 per cent support for the PQ.

This is a significant comeback for Milliard’s Liberals.

At the same time, support for Quebec sovereignty is down: only 29 per cent of respondents would vote “Yes” in a referendum.

The geopolitical instability caused by U.S. President Donald Trump recently forced St-Pierre Plamondon to clarify his intentions regarding his referendum process.

On Feb. 23, the PQ leader acknowledged that Quebecers were “truly afraid” and did not rule out waiting until after Trump’s term to consider holding a referendum.

On Tuesday, he added that the war in Iran could have an “impact” on the fight for sovereignty.

As such, the PLQ, led by Milliard, the former president of the Quebec Federation of Chambers of Commerce, has climbed four points since Jan. 29, according to Léger.

“The arrival ... of Charles Milliard ... seems to have consolidated the Liberal vote,” the polling firm said. “In a context of successive crises, voters are more in protection mode than in break mode.”

The PQ maintains a comfortable lead in French-speaking regions (39 per cent), with the Liberals also improving their scores with the francophone electorate (19 per cent).

A Pallas Data-Qc125-L’Actualité poll conducted at the end of February also indicated that a close race is shaping up between the PQ and the PLQ.

The CAQ in fourth place

According to the poll, Éric Duhaime’s Conservative Party (PCQ) stands to garner 15 per cent of the vote, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) 13 per cent and Québec solidaire 9 per cent.

If Christine Fréchette became leader of the CAQ, the party would fare only slightly better, with 15 per cent of the vote.

About 70 per cent of CAQ supporters said they want her to succeed François Legault, compared to 20 per cent for rival Bernard Drainville.

The survey was conducted online among 1,041 respondents aged 18 or older, from Feb. 27 to March 2, 2026. The results were weighted to reflect the Quebec population.

For comparison purposes, a probabilistic sample of this size would have a margin of error of ±3.04%, 19 times out of 20.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on March 4, 2026.