Jamieson Greer said the U.S. would not renew the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade deal, moving the agreement into annual reviews that could continue for up to 10 years before expiring. It’s happening as trade tensions heighten with President Trump’s announcement of a 50 per cent tariff on a wide range of Canadian goods. Carlo Dade from the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policies joined Alberta Primetime’s Michael Higgins to discuss the U.S. administration’s tactic. This interview has been edited for clarity and length. Michael Higgins: This threat of 50 per cent tariffs and possibly more, how should that be viewed? Is this simply about pressuring or bullying Canada into submission? Carlo Dade: Yes, absolutely. The U.S. administration is doing a lot of negotiating in public and this is part of it. Stories like this in the media are part of the aims of the U.S. imposing tariffs and the communications you hear from the White House, and also from USTR. These tariffs are different and unique from the others that we’ve experienced, and also from the other powers that the president has. These tariffs can be uniquely applied at the subnational level, meaning at the provincial level. The administration so far has chosen not to do that. But this opens up a whole new front in terms of our engagement with the Americans. The ability of the president to single out a particular province for action and not to tariff other provinces; that’s on the table now. MH: Why are the Americans appearing so frustrated over provinces responding with things like booze bans and Canada being one of the very few nations refusing to capitulate? CD: You’ve hit the nails on the head. When I was at USTR a couple of months ago, they made the point very clearly. There are only two countries that have dared to impose retaliatory tariffs. As the Americans say, both countries begin with a “C,” meaning the other one is China. But this isn’t just about us or about China. The Americans are undertaking negotiations with pretty much every country on the planet to re-establish or to establish new trade rules, new trade ties, new engagements, and new tariffs. Just two days ago, Jordan became the 21st country to capitulate to the Americans and to take a trade deal that’s worse than what they have and has higher tariffs than what they have in the U.S. Jordan Free Trade Agreement. The Americans I say, using the old Chinese proverb, are killing a chicken to scare the monkeys. Mexico and Canada happen to be the chickens. But Canada, retaliatory tariffs, personally upset in Washington but also strategically, the broader global gain in sending a message. Canada was being used to send the message. MH: What then is likely happening behind the scenes that we are not seeing, where Canada is concerned? CD: I think you really have to be in the room to understand. Clearly what we can see that has shown in public is that part of this pressure campaign is to engage Mexico ahead of Canada. For several reasons, the Americans realize that Mexican dependency is even greater than Canadian dependency. Mexico is also an easier sell on U.S. policy to contain and limit other countries from trading with China. That makes Mexico a perfect additional lever point for Canada. Mexico isn’t doing this because of Canada. They’re simply a victim of U.S. pressure and the economic structure of their relationship, so that’s something else that I think we’re going to be seeing soon. The Americans are in Mexico having formal talks with the Mexicans. They’re not in Canada. They’re not planning to come to Canada. That again is negotiating in public. MH: How much of an actual strategy do you see the Carney government employing through all of this and is it sticking to the said plan? CD: I think the plan has been not to be forced into hasty negotiations with the Americans. There’s no good deal on the table. With 21 countries, no one got a deal that was anything but worse than what they had before. Thinking that we’re going to be different, that rushing to make concessions will give us something that Argentina, the EU, Japan, Korea didn’t get, is nonsensical. The current government appears to realize that we have the best deal going. If we rush to make concessions, it’s not going to improve our position, it’s only going to strengthen the American’s hand. We need to proceed (emphasis on proceed, not stall, not stay back) we need to proceed a bit more slowly and deliberately than other countries have gone. If your negotiating partner is deliberately pushing you into haste for any negotiation, that’s a symbol that you probably don’t want to follow their lead and receive the pace. MH: Is there value in retaliation hitting back where there might be leverage, be that electricity out of Ontario or even the flow of oil out of Alberta? CD: It’s the absolute worst thing we can do. The Americans are harming the U.S. economy, harming U.S. consumers, harming U.S. businesses with these tariffs. The last thing we want to do is follow their example and flip more harm on Canadian businesses, more harm on Canadian consumers, and more harm on Canadian consumers. If someone’s digging their own grave, your first instinct shouldn’t be to fight them for the shovel. That’s hard for Canadians to hear because ego’s and national pride’s involved. If you look at the 21 other countries, they’ve managed to swallow their pride and think with their heads instead of their hearts. As Don Cherry would say, “You’re skating towards the blue lines. Time to get your elbows down and get your head up.” That’s what we need in Canada: move from emotion to intellect and be smart about this, as hard as it may be.
