Nanos Research found that the top choice in a new poll on which high-profile Conservative could defeat Prime Minister Mark Carney, was ‘none of them’ at 33%. The closest contender was former PM Stephen Harper at 16%, current Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre at 15%, and Ontario Premier Doug Ford at 11%. Researcher Nik Nanos joined Alberta Primetime’s Michael Higgins to discuss it. This interview has been edited for clarity and length. Michael Higgins: No Conservative currently poses a challenge to Mark Carney. What does that suggest to you? Nik Nanos: What’s clear is that there aren’t people clamouring to run against Mark Carney right now. The fact that one out of three Canadians said there is not a Conservative that could defeat Carney at this point in time is quite striking. Pierre Poilievre is tied with former Prime Minister Stephen Harper so I guess the good news for Poilievre is there’s not an election at this point in time. I guess the second piece of good news is that there isn’t someone in the wings. Someone that could be an alternative, a ‘saviour’ so to speak, that could take on Mark Carney. So it looks like a steady state right now. MH: As a pollster, how caught off guard were you by these results? NN: I was quite surprised because you have to think of it this way: Pierre Poilievre is at 15 per cent, in terms of 15 per cent of Canadians, thinking that he could defeat or had a chance to defeat Mark Carney. Conservative support is about twice that. Which means that half of the Conservative support, like people who would put Conservative signs on their lawns, don’t even think that Pierre Poilievre has a chance to beat Mark Carney. MH: What does that then suggest about the status of Poilievre as Conservative party leader? NN: I don’t think we should confuse what Canadians think with what the Conservative Party of Canada wants. He came off a leadership review and he very successfully, I wouldn’t even say ‘fought it off’ because it was a slam dunk for him in terms of an endorsement from rank-and-file Conservative Party members. I think what this means is he’s got to get back in the game. He needs more profile. He probably would like to be in the House. Pierre Poilievre is a very effective leader and a very effective politician in the House of Commons. The House of Commons is a bit of an equalizer. When the House of Commons is sitting, the leader of the opposition (Pierre Polilievre), has a platform to attack the Liberals and to attack Mark Carney. Perhaps one of the factors here is that we’re in the middle of the summer. Pierre Poilievre hasn’t had much of a platform and it’s really been all about Mark Carney. Carney dealing with Donald Trump and the new 50-per-cent tariffs that Trump has threatened to slap onto some Canadian goods. MH: You made the point that there doesn’t appear to be anyone in the wings. But is this the kind of dynamic that is maybe going to prompt potential challengers to step out of the shadows? NN: I think what would prompt challengers to step out of the shadows would be for some sort of misstep controversy with Mark Carney or the Liberals. The fact of the matter is that Pierre Poilievre can do a perfect job as leader of the opposition, but he still needs his opponent Mark Carney to make a mistake. He still needs some sort of controversy, some sort of conflict, something that would allow or initiate Canadians to question Mark Carney and his government. We haven’t seen that yet. We haven’t seen a major mistake out of Carney or his government at this particular point in time. Poilievre not only needs to engage Canadians in order to build support. What would help him in terms of the polling and closing the gap would be for some type of problem to happen with Mark Carney or the Liberals, in terms of a controversy of some sort. MH: Outside of Stephen Harper and Pierre Poilievre, who of course have ties to our province, where do other notable Alberta Conservatives land on your list in terms of following behind Harper, Poilievre and Ford? NN: In the top part of the group were Rona Ambrose and the Premier of Alberta, Danielle Smith. They rounded up the top five Conservatives who people believe had a chance to defeat Mark Carney. Jason Kenney came in at around five per cent, so he trailed them, but I think there’s some high profile Conservatives in the West that are on the radar as part of the mix. The fact is the election is not now. The Conservatives still have time to recalculate and recalibrate their messaging and reengage Canadians. Things can change. Do you remember the chat we had about Pierre Poilievre not being able to lose the election? Poilievre was 27 points ahead of Justin Trudeau’s party, and it looked like there was nothing that could stop him. So I wouldn’t get too worried about numbers like this. What it means is that right now, there’s not a clear counterpoint other than Pierre Poilievre as a Conservative individual who Canadians believe can defeat Mark Carney. MH: Shed some light on your latest Nanos ballot tracking. Where do the parties stand? Where do the leaders stand? NN: When we asked Canadians about their ballot support and the latest tracking that was just released, we have the Liberals at around 47 per cent, followed by the Conservatives at 28 per cent. The Conservatives are about 19 points back. The New Democrats are back at 13. So it’s an interesting thing that this margin and also the advantage that Mark Carney has. I think on the preferred prime minister tracking, he’s in the mid-50s, around 56 per cent. Pierre Poilievre is at 18 per cent. This is in the context of Donald Trump saying that he wants to put 50-per-cent tariffs on Canadian goods. We know from the last election that every time Donald Trump attacked Canada, every time he threatened Canada in terms of tariffs or other measures, that helped Mark Carney. That also helped the Liberals. The thing is that, in the last couple weeks, this focus on Donald Trump and the tariffs has helped the Liberals widen their advantage. It helped Mark Carney widen his advantage over Pierre Poilievre, and as a result, the Liberals are in the driver’s seat this week. Next week, who knows what the margin will be? But right now with Donald Trump in the news, it’s advantage Liberal and advantage Mark Carney. MH: There are no fewer than three upcoming federal by-elections. What kind of light does all of this and your latest polling shed on potential outcomes there? NN: Two of the three ridings are probably a lock for the Liberals. The riding that I’m watching is the riding held by a former Conservative caucus member, now a senator in the riding in the province of Quebec. Interestingly, the Liberals have nominated a dairy farmer as their candidate, so maybe supply management might be a wedge issue there. That riding is a very tight race. In our seat projections, it’s basically too close to call. It’s going to be interesting to see how the Conservatives do, considering the Conservative Party is the incumbent party in that Quebec by-election, and how the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois do. That’s going to be a real horse race to watch.
