29% of Albertans support idea of separation from Canada: Leger poll

People gather in support of Alberta becoming a 51st state during a rally at the Legislature in Edmonton, on Saturday, May 3, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson

A Leger poll suggests 29 per cent of Albertans want the province to become a country independent of Canada.

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One thousand people were surveyed over three days earlier this month. Forty-three per cent of respondents say economic reasons such as taxation and federal policies are reasons they support independence.

Of the people who participated, 67 per cent are opposed while 5 per cent “don’t know.”

With nearly a third of respondents supporting the idea, economist Moshe Lander says it’s emotion behind the number and not economics.

“There’s no mainstream economist who says this will work. They’re not even saying it could work,” Lander told CTV News Edmonton.

Lander says decades of messaging in Alberta against Ottawa has become an issue causing people to consider separating from Canada.

“They’ve just bought into the narrative and they’ve now decided that, ‘Well, I guess we just gotta be rid of the problem,’ rather than recognizing that maybe it’s the messaging, or even the messenger, that’s the issue,” he said.

Regardless of what the polls say, Lander doesn’t think independence is the right idea for Alberta.

“What I can tell you with unequivocal certainty is if Alberta leaves, the gains of the people who win from separation will be outweighed by those that lose, and so the losses of the losers will exceed the gains of the winners. And so overall, Alberta society will be clearly, unequivocally, worse off.”

‘It’s wholly un-Canadian’

Last week, South African-Canadian businesswoman Arlene Dickinson posted on social media she’s “genuinely stunned” by Premier Danielle Smith’s actions of Bill 54. She calls the bill “wholly un-Canadian.”

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Dickinson was raised in Canada and graduated high school in Calgary.

“I’m an Albertan and I share the deep frustrations that Albertans have. I absolutely understand them, but there is a real difference between fighting for fairness and threatening the foundations of our country,” Dickinson told CTV News Edmonton.

She adds that while she understands how Albertans feel, Smith isn’t demonstrating leadership and hoped she would “rise to the occasion.”

‘A sense of fairness’

Tegan Hill, director of Alberta policy with the Fraser Institute, says Albertans are “rightfully” frustrated.

“They have made and continue to make an outsized contribution to federation, to the rest of Canada, to the tune of $245 billion from 2007 to 2022,” Hill told CTV News.

“At the same time, they continue to face federal policies that damage and restrict their key industry, the energy sector.”

Hill says that billion dollar figure comes from what Albertans pay in taxes and transfers to the federal government, compared to what they get back.

She suggests Alberta has a higher rate of employment, higher average incomes and less retirees, meaning Albertans pay more into federal programs like the Canada Pension Plan.

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“The issue again is Albertans are making this over contribution, and then they’re not feeling a sense of fairness in terms of policies that are restricting their energy industry,” Hill said.

Two key policies impacting those industries are the proposed emissions cap and Bill C-69. In order for the province to make a deal with Ottawa, those two policies would need to be off the table, HIll said.

A further step forward would be for Prime Minister Mark Carney to start his term “really uniting Canada and bringing this kind of unrest and division to an end,” Hill suggests.

The online survey polled 1,000 people between May 9 to 12, 2025. The margin of error is no greater than 3.1%. You can read poll results here

With files from CTV News Edmonton’s Chelan Skulski.